DCFC Champagne Challenge

Senior Mixed Épée

Sunday, January 12, 2025 at 10:00 AM

DC Fencers Club - Silver Spring, MD, USA

Probability density of pool victories

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Explore the pool victory probability density for each fencer, with their actual victories highlighted in a box. Learn more.

#	Name	Number of victories
#	Name	0	1	2	3	4	5	6
1	TABLEMAN Doug S.	-	-	-	-	5%	33%	62%
2	DEUCHER Joseph H.	-	-	-	5%	30%	65%
3	HILBERT Gabriel E.	-	-	-	2%	20%	78%
3	LEE Aiden	-	3%	19%	41%	31%	6%
5	LIN Haley	15%	40%	33%	11%	2%	< 1%	-
6	GANTSOUDES Isaac	-	2%	16%	42%	36%	4%
7	LEE Benjamin	2%	19%	42%	30%	7%	-
8	GAO "George" Xiaojiang	-	7%	30%	43%	19%	1%
9	TIKHONOV Daniel	-	-	6%	27%	44%	23%
10	PAN Colin	-	-	8%	32%	42%	18%
11	MEGGERS Samuel	1%	10%	42%	35%	11%	1%
12	EVANS George	1%	8%	29%	39%	19%	3%	-
13	BAGHA Armin	-	-	1%	9%	38%	51%
14	KENDLER Micah	9%	42%	37%	11%	1%	-
15	MONTESI Eric	-	1%	11%	37%	38%	13%
16	LEECH Braedan	3%	30%	44%	20%	3%	-
17	YANG Gary	-	2%	18%	43%	32%	5%
18	YU Jason	-	3%	18%	41%	32%	6%
19	YI Nathan	-	2%	13%	33%	36%	14%	1%
20	BJERKNESS Riley	10%	41%	36%	12%	1%	-
21	SZIEDE Kieran	3%	32%	44%	18%	3%	-
22	SCHAPIRO Jacob	-	-	1%	10%	35%	44%	10%
23	WANG Aiden	2%	19%	43%	29%	7%	-
24	MEGGERS Davin	-	2%	17%	42%	34%	5%
25	OZBAY Alp	26%	54%	18%	2%	-	-
26	HALE Bradley	59%	34%	7%	-	-	-
27	SUNKARA Vishnu	17%	40%	32%	11%	1%	-	-
28	MACTOUGH Ben	76%	22%	2%	-	-	-
29	FENG Xinmin	53%	40%	6%	-	-	-
30	HARTWELL Aston	5%	33%	42%	17%	3%	-	-
31	PARY Jean Pierre	58%	35%	7%	-	-	-

Explanation

The heatmap in this table provides a visual representation of the victory probability distribution for each fencer in their respective pools:

Each cell in a fencer's row corresponds to a specific number of victories, starting from the left with no victories and increasing to the right, indicating victories in all bouts.
The shading of each cell represents the probability of that particular victory outcome for the fencer. Darker shades indicate higher probabilities, suggesting that the outcome is more likely based on past performances. On the other hand, lighter shades point towards less probable outcomes.
The boxed number in a cell represents the actual number of victories the fencer achieved in the pool, making it easy to compare predicted probabilities with actual outcomes at a glance.
By examining the gradient from lighter to darker cells, you can get an intuitive sense of where a fencer's victories are more or less expected based on their historical performance.

This heatmap visualization offers an immediate understanding of each fencer's expected performance compared to their actual results.

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