Bill Goering Colorado Cup #2 + Vet #3 Walk N' Roll

Senior Mixed Épée

Sunday, January 26, 2025 at 9:00 AM

Denver Fencing Center - Denver, CO, USA

Probability density of pool victories

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Explore the pool victory probability density for each fencer, with their actual victories highlighted in a box. Learn more.

#	Name	Number of victories
#	Name	0	1	2	3	4	5	6
1	TAFOYA Devin D.	-	-	-	-	2%	33%	64%
2	CHOI Kaiden I.	-	-	1%	8%	36%	56%
3	DANIS Blake M.	-	-	4%	21%	46%	29%
3	PETERSON Matthew	1%	7%	24%	36%	26%	7%
5	LIU Josh	-	7%	27%	40%	22%	4%
6	WANG Zoe	3%	17%	33%	31%	14%	2%
7	MUENKE Magnus	2%	16%	37%	33%	10%	1%	-
8	BRUNO Timothy	-	5%	18%	35%	31%	10%
9	CELECKI Barrett	-	-	-	2%	19%	57%	21%
10	AGGELER Donovan	-	5%	19%	35%	31%	10%
11	MARENCIK Miles	1%	8%	29%	40%	19%	3%
12	LEE Jayden J.	-	1%	7%	27%	44%	22%
13	AMBROSE Katie	1%	9%	25%	35%	23%	6%
14	ALTMAN Jeff H.	-	4%	19%	35%	31%	10%
15	NOFZIGER Bennett	5%	23%	36%	26%	8%	1%
16	ISAACSON Calev	4%	19%	35%	29%	11%	2%
17	MACMILLAN Collin	-	4%	18%	35%	32%	11%
18	ZHOU Austin	1%	9%	31%	39%	18%	2%
19	KENT V David	-	-	4%	20%	45%	31%
20	VARGAS Fernando	5%	26%	42%	22%	4%	-
21	MU Jason	4%	24%	41%	25%	5%	-
22	COLE Matthew	-	1%	10%	34%	45%	10%	-
23	EYMAN Hans	-	2%	15%	38%	37%	8%
24	SHULL Marc	2%	14%	32%	33%	16%	3%
25	SCHWITZER Eliot	7%	32%	39%	19%	3%	-
26	LONG Sam	9%	30%	36%	19%	5%	-
27	FRIEDMAN Lucas	1%	17%	40%	32%	10%	1%
28	EMERSON Zachary	13%	39%	35%	12%	1%	-	-
29	LOMBARDO Declan	8%	28%	37%	21%	5%	-
30	HOEHLE Stacy A.	44%	40%	14%	2%	-	-
31	MAGNUSON Thomas	26%	42%	24%	7%	1%	-
32	KENT Laurel	11%	34%	37%	16%	3%	-	-
33	ISAACSON Henny	28%	47%	23%	3%	-	-
34	LONG Ethan	11%	32%	34%	18%	4%	-
35	MUENKE Torben	48%	39%	11%	1%	-	-
36	FROIDEVAUX Benjamin	15%	41%	33%	10%	1%	-	-
37	WYLIE Luke	6%	37%	40%	15%	2%	-

Explanation

The heatmap in this table provides a visual representation of the victory probability distribution for each fencer in their respective pools:

Each cell in a fencer's row corresponds to a specific number of victories, starting from the left with no victories and increasing to the right, indicating victories in all bouts.
The shading of each cell represents the probability of that particular victory outcome for the fencer. Darker shades indicate higher probabilities, suggesting that the outcome is more likely based on past performances. On the other hand, lighter shades point towards less probable outcomes.
The boxed number in a cell represents the actual number of victories the fencer achieved in the pool, making it easy to compare predicted probabilities with actual outcomes at a glance.
By examining the gradient from lighter to darker cells, you can get an intuitive sense of where a fencer's victories are more or less expected based on their historical performance.

This heatmap visualization offers an immediate understanding of each fencer's expected performance compared to their actual results.

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