8th Annual Sword in the Stone RYC and RJC

Y-12 Men's Épée

Friday, February 21, 2025 at 10:00 AM

Jump Beyond Sports - Torrance, CA, USA

Probability density of pool victories

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Explore the pool victory probability density for each fencer, with their actual victories highlighted in a box. Learn more.

#	Name	Number of victories
#	Name	0	1	2	3	4	5	6
1	XUE Michael	-	-	-	2%	14%	41%	42%
2	FU Nolan	-	-	-	3%	18%	44%	34%
3	RONG Marcus	-	-	5%	26%	42%	23%	4%
3	PARKE Nathaniel	-	-	1%	8%	25%	40%	26%
5	MOSLEY Wally	-	-	-	2%	14%	41%	42%
6	KIM Daniel	-	-	2%	16%	38%	35%	9%
7	CHEN Aiden	-	3%	21%	40%	29%	7%
8	WU Nathan	-	-	1%	7%	28%	44%	20%
9	DU Evan	-	-	-	1%	13%	41%	45%
10	LEE Lucas	-	1%	5%	20%	36%	30%	7%
11	WANG Lucas	-	1%	9%	31%	41%	19%
12	PARRA Lucas	1%	12%	31%	36%	17%	3%
13	ENG Kyler	-	-	3%	17%	41%	38%
14	HWANG Matthew	-	1%	14%	36%	36%	12%
15	LIN Daniel	4%	22%	37%	27%	9%	1%
16	LIN Bryan	-	1%	8%	32%	40%	18%	2%
17	YOON Ian	3%	17%	33%	30%	13%	2%	-
18	LI Vance	1%	6%	21%	35%	27%	9%	1%
19	SUN Jiarui (Jerry)	1%	7%	21%	33%	26%	10%	1%
20	LIU Yihong	-	3%	15%	33%	34%	13%	2%
21	CHU Clayton	3%	18%	35%	31%	12%	2%	-
22	WONG Kyle	-	-	4%	16%	35%	35%	10%
23	WONG Alexander	-	3%	12%	28%	33%	19%	4%
24	SHIH Derek	5%	20%	33%	28%	12%	3%	-
25	YOO Lucas	1%	9%	28%	37%	21%	4%
26	LI Stephen	-	2%	19%	40%	31%	8%
27	YI Alexander	2%	13%	31%	33%	17%	4%	-
28	GUO Jonathan	1%	7%	22%	35%	26%	8%	1%
29	ZHANG JENSON	2%	13%	29%	32%	18%	5%	-
30	PARK Sean	3%	18%	34%	30%	12%	2%	-
31	WON Jacob	9%	37%	41%	12%	1%	-	-
32	LI Connor	15%	34%	32%	15%	4%	-	-
33	ZHAO Luke	2%	13%	31%	33%	17%	4%	-
34	ABRAHAM Aaron	6%	24%	35%	25%	9%	1%	-
35	LIU Aiden	2%	11%	27%	33%	21%	7%	1%
36	LEE Connor	30%	42%	22%	5%	1%	-	-
37	FU Benjamin	2%	14%	34%	34%	14%	2%
38	ZHAO Jonathan Li	51%	42%	7%	-	-	-
39	FONG Ethan	5%	21%	35%	27%	10%	2%	-
39	HUNG Ludwig	20%	45%	29%	5%	-	-	-
41	LU Jayden	35%	41%	19%	4%	-	-	-
42	KIM Benjamin	6%	25%	37%	24%	7%	1%	-
43	LIU William	3%	19%	37%	29%	10%	1%	-
44	LEE Daniel	29%	54%	15%	2%	-	-
45	SI Alexander	43%	40%	14%	2%	-	-
46	TAN Yichen	33%	46%	19%	2%	-	-	-
47	YANG Rony	14%	34%	33%	15%	3%	-	-

Explanation

The heatmap in this table provides a visual representation of the victory probability distribution for each fencer in their respective pools:

Each cell in a fencer's row corresponds to a specific number of victories, starting from the left with no victories and increasing to the right, indicating victories in all bouts.
The shading of each cell represents the probability of that particular victory outcome for the fencer. Darker shades indicate higher probabilities, suggesting that the outcome is more likely based on past performances. On the other hand, lighter shades point towards less probable outcomes.
The boxed number in a cell represents the actual number of victories the fencer achieved in the pool, making it easy to compare predicted probabilities with actual outcomes at a glance.
By examining the gradient from lighter to darker cells, you can get an intuitive sense of where a fencer's victories are more or less expected based on their historical performance.

This heatmap visualization offers an immediate understanding of each fencer's expected performance compared to their actual results.

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