W&M Conomikes-Gutenberg Memorial Open

Senior Mixed Épée

Sunday, February 23, 2025 at 9:00 AM

William & Mary Adair Gym - Williamsburg, VA, USA

Probability density of pool victories

Birth Year

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Explore the pool victory probability density for each fencer, with their actual victories highlighted in a box. Learn more.

#	Name	Number of victories
#	Name	0	1	2	3	4	5	6
1	OTT James (Jimmy) P.	-	-	-	-	6%	34%	60%
2	MONTESI Eric	-	6%	24%	39%	25%	5%	-
3	O'HARA Keegan J.	-	-	-	1%	8%	38%	53%
3	YANG Gary	-	-	3%	16%	34%	34%	12%
5	BAGHA Armin	-	-	1%	8%	39%	52%
6	DUAN eric	-	-	2%	10%	28%	40%	21%
7	SO Lorenzo	-	-	3%	21%	55%	22%
8	COUGHLIN Nolan E.	-	-	1%	10%	32%	44%	13%
9	WALLACE George	-	-	1%	7%	31%	43%	18%
10	LIN Harrison	-	-	1%	10%	36%	43%	10%
11	PETERS Nathan M.	-	-	-	-	2%	25%	73%
12	MILLER Luke	-	1%	10%	28%	36%	20%	4%
13	HERMES Henry	-	-	4%	21%	46%	25%	3%
14	BLUM Oliver	1%	11%	29%	35%	20%	5%	-
15	TAMULONIS Fen C.	-	-	-	6%	31%	44%	19%
16	DELONG Joshua	1%	8%	29%	40%	19%	3%	-
17	PANE Patrick	-	1%	8%	28%	42%	19%	2%
18	FOREST Sung	-	-	2%	13%	38%	41%	6%
19	BANG Dylan	-	21%	50%	25%	3%	-	-
20	BADLANI Neel	1%	13%	39%	38%	9%	1%
21	SHELLY Emery	1%	11%	34%	36%	15%	2%	-
22	SALLAI Abel	27%	44%	23%	5%	-	-	-
23	FEAGIN Patrick	-	5%	27%	44%	20%	3%	-
24	LE Tan	-	-	1%	7%	30%	43%	19%
25	BOZARTH Alex	1%	13%	33%	34%	16%	3%	-
26	BENUCCI Vincent	2%	21%	50%	24%	2%	-
27	DAVIS Andrew	4%	32%	44%	19%	2%	-	-
28	MOORE Mary	22%	40%	28%	9%	1%	-	-
29	HAVERSON Civa	32%	44%	20%	4%	-	-
30	ASBY Will	1%	12%	32%	35%	17%	4%	-
31	NEPS Alec	1%	15%	34%	32%	14%	3%	-
32	LUNDEN Espen	12%	35%	36%	15%	2%	-	-
33	ANDERSON Sr. Danny R.	8%	38%	37%	14%	2%	-	-
34	THOMPSON Conner	9%	32%	39%	18%	3%	-	-
35	MATUSIAK JT	7%	34%	40%	16%	3%	-	-
36	OGURA Griffin	14%	42%	33%	9%	1%	-	-
37	DHINDHWAL KULBIR SINGH	66%	29%	5%	-	-	-	-
38	CASSIDY Leo	4%	22%	40%	28%	5%	-	-
39	KOVARI Kata	59%	37%	4%	-	-	-	-
40	SOLOMON Ethan	12%	59%	26%	3%	-	-
41	FISHER Natalie	29%	47%	20%	3%	-	-	-

Explanation

The heatmap in this table provides a visual representation of the victory probability distribution for each fencer in their respective pools:

Each cell in a fencer's row corresponds to a specific number of victories, starting from the left with no victories and increasing to the right, indicating victories in all bouts.
The shading of each cell represents the probability of that particular victory outcome for the fencer. Darker shades indicate higher probabilities, suggesting that the outcome is more likely based on past performances. On the other hand, lighter shades point towards less probable outcomes.
The boxed number in a cell represents the actual number of victories the fencer achieved in the pool, making it easy to compare predicted probabilities with actual outcomes at a glance.
By examining the gradient from lighter to darker cells, you can get an intuitive sense of where a fencer's victories are more or less expected based on their historical performance.

This heatmap visualization offers an immediate understanding of each fencer's expected performance compared to their actual results.

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