2nd Annual Bama Open

Div II Mixed Épée

Sunday, February 23, 2025 at 2:30 PM

400 Peter Bryce Blvd. - Tuscaloosa, AL, USA

Probability density of pool victories

Birth Year

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Explore the pool victory probability density for each fencer, with their actual victories highlighted in a box. Learn more.

#	Name	Number of victories
#	Name	0	1	2	3	4	5
1	KRAFFT Douglas	-	-	1%	21%	78%
2	SUTTON Caleb	-	19%	49%	31%
3	LIU Oscar	-	4%	24%	47%	25%
3	DONG Joshua	-	5%	31%	45%	18%
5	CHALMERS Thomas	-	2%	18%	47%	34%
6	KERTESZ Stefan	-	3%	17%	43%	37%
7	WILLIAMS Eli	-	5%	24%	44%	27%
8	MASSIE Jay Thomas	4%	24%	45%	26%	1%
9	SUNDQUIST Matthew	-	-	4%	17%	41%	37%
10	SOPER Adam	-	7%	28%	43%	22%
11	MEILAN William	2%	17%	37%	32%	11%	1%
12	ELLIOTT Wyatt	-	2%	60%	38%
13	GOINS Isaac	1%	9%	30%	39%	19%	3%
14	FORD Tillman	2%	14%	36%	36%	12%
15	CALINSKY Edward	2%	15%	37%	36%	10%
16	FULLER Patrick	21%	61%	17%	1%	-
17	EDWARDS John	5%	25%	40%	25%	5%
18	JOHNSTON Jacob	1%	30%	45%	21%	3%
19	MACGREGOR Alexander	10%	33%	38%	17%	2%
19	WATKINS Christopher	7%	34%	40%	17%	2%
21	MANNING Jackson	12%	38%	38%	12%	-
22	MARSHALL Jaden	2%	16%	40%	34%	9%
23	PARKER Jordan	2%	12%	29%	35%	19%	3%
24	AGUILLON Alexis	11%	50%	38%	1%
25	WENTWORTH Ashley	14%	40%	35%	10%	1%
26	VON KLAR Rhiannon	10%	41%	37%	11%	1%
27	OGLE Bennett	18%	42%	32%	8%	-
28	KNOX Aidan	20%	42%	29%	8%	1%
29	POWERS Robert	2%	33%	46%	17%	2%
30	DEMAREE Matthew	1%	19%	39%	30%	10%	1%
31	SIMPSON Sophia	25%	43%	25%	6%	-
32	PEACOCK Audrey	85%	14%	1%	-	-
33	WASH James	77%	23%	-	-
34	HUNTER James	34%	44%	19%	3%	-
35	REYNOLDS Natalie	40%	43%	15%	2%	-	-

Explanation

The heatmap in this table provides a visual representation of the victory probability distribution for each fencer in their respective pools:

Each cell in a fencer's row corresponds to a specific number of victories, starting from the left with no victories and increasing to the right, indicating victories in all bouts.
The shading of each cell represents the probability of that particular victory outcome for the fencer. Darker shades indicate higher probabilities, suggesting that the outcome is more likely based on past performances. On the other hand, lighter shades point towards less probable outcomes.
The boxed number in a cell represents the actual number of victories the fencer achieved in the pool, making it easy to compare predicted probabilities with actual outcomes at a glance.
By examining the gradient from lighter to darker cells, you can get an intuitive sense of where a fencer's victories are more or less expected based on their historical performance.

This heatmap visualization offers an immediate understanding of each fencer's expected performance compared to their actual results.

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