Boston Fencing Club RYC

Y-12 Women's Épée

Sunday, March 2, 2025 at 8:00 AM

Boston Fencing Club - Boston, MA, USA

Probability density of pool victories

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Explore the pool victory probability density for each fencer, with their actual victories highlighted in a box. Learn more.

#	Name	Number of victories
#	Name	0	1	2	3	4	5
1	TIAN Victoria	-	-	2%	16%	44%	38%
2	ZHANG Jane	-	-	-	2%	22%	75%
3	ZHU Una	-	-	-	5%	34%	61%
3	SONKU Mira	-	1%	9%	30%	43%	17%
5	YOUN Emily	-	4%	17%	35%	33%	11%
6	KIM Charlotte	4%	21%	37%	28%	9%	1%
7	XU Mulan	-	4%	18%	35%	32%	11%
8	REDWINE Louise	-	4%	21%	42%	29%	3%
9	DING Iris Siyue	-	2%	11%	31%	39%	18%
10	FEESER Alexia	4%	20%	38%	29%	9%	1%
11	GOFMAN Anastasia	-	-	4%	18%	41%	37%
12	ZHANG Audrey A.	-	1%	7%	30%	48%	14%
13	MISHIMA Olivia	1%	9%	31%	40%	18%	1%
14	PAN Emma	2%	14%	33%	34%	15%	2%
15	YIN Elaine	2%	14%	33%	33%	15%	2%
16	SAJJA Anwita	11%	31%	35%	18%	5%	-
17	CHEN Allison	2%	14%	32%	34%	16%	2%
18	RAJPUT Mahek	-	2%	11%	30%	39%	18%
19	MAO Faith	3%	18%	39%	31%	9%	-
20	ZHAO Rachel	16%	37%	32%	13%	2%	-
21	SIU Mila	-	1%	9%	28%	40%	21%
22	GRUDZINSKI Josephine	1%	11%	31%	38%	17%	2%
23	CHALLAMEL Heloise	1%	9%	28%	37%	21%	4%
24	CURTIN Evelyn	8%	29%	39%	20%	3%	-
25	CHOI Noah	14%	37%	35%	13%	2%	-
26	ERATA Selena	20%	42%	29%	8%	1%	-
27	PATEL Aria	3%	16%	34%	32%	13%	2%
28	OZALP Tara	25%	41%	26%	8%	1%	-
29	PATEL Agena	3%	19%	36%	30%	11%	1%
30	SHEN Zoey	6%	27%	40%	23%	4%	-
31	YOON Michelle	33%	42%	20%	5%	-	-
32	WILLIAMSON Aria	11%	35%	35%	16%	3%	-
33	LEE Iona	3%	16%	34%	32%	13%	2%
34	LI Juliana	6%	26%	37%	24%	7%	1%
35	SELASSIE Semara	25%	41%	26%	7%	1%	-
36	GARZON Laura	14%	38%	34%	12%	1%	-
37	AINSWORTH Esme	3%	18%	35%	31%	12%	2%
37	KAUR Harman	30%	45%	21%	4%	-	-
39	MISHIMA Quinn	17%	40%	31%	10%	1%	-
40	BILIEN Yiwen	-	1%	7%	26%	43%	24%
41	BONTHAPALLY Maitreyee S.	7%	28%	39%	21%	4%	-
42	TAN Abriel	20%	43%	29%	7%	1%	-

Explanation

The heatmap in this table provides a visual representation of the victory probability distribution for each fencer in their respective pools:

Each cell in a fencer's row corresponds to a specific number of victories, starting from the left with no victories and increasing to the right, indicating victories in all bouts.
The shading of each cell represents the probability of that particular victory outcome for the fencer. Darker shades indicate higher probabilities, suggesting that the outcome is more likely based on past performances. On the other hand, lighter shades point towards less probable outcomes.
The boxed number in a cell represents the actual number of victories the fencer achieved in the pool, making it easy to compare predicted probabilities with actual outcomes at a glance.
By examining the gradient from lighter to darker cells, you can get an intuitive sense of where a fencer's victories are more or less expected based on their historical performance.

This heatmap visualization offers an immediate understanding of each fencer's expected performance compared to their actual results.

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