2025 NCAA Northeast Regionals

Men's Foil

Sunday, March 9, 2025 at 9:30 AM

Tufts University - Medford, MA, USA

Probability density of pool victories

Birth Year

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Explore the pool victory probability density for each fencer, with their actual victories highlighted in a box. Learn more.

#	Name	Number of victories
#	Name	0	1	2	3	4	5	6	7	8	9	10	11	12	13	14	15	16	17	18	19	20	21
1	NAGIMOV Marsel	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	1%	2%	4%	9%	15%	20%	20%	16%	9%	4%	1%	-
2	ONIK Elijah	-	-	-	-	2%	4%	9%	15%	18%	19%	15%	10%	5%	2%	1%	< 1%	-	-	-	-
3	KUMBLA Samarth	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	1%	3%	7%	12%	17%	20%	18%	13%	7%	3%	1%	-
4	KAO Castor	-	-	-	-	-	-	1%	3%	7%	13%	17%	19%	17%	12%	7%	3%	1%	-	-	-	-
5	CHEN Andrew	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	1%	2%	5%	10%	16%	19%	19%	14%	8%	4%	1%	-	-
7	BANERJEE Anup	-	-	-	-	1%	4%	9%	14%	18%	19%	15%	10%	5%	2%	1%	-	-	-	-	-	-
8	YU Vinni	-	-	-	-	-	1%	3%	7%	12%	17%	19%	17%	12%	7%	3%	1%	-	-	-	-	-
9	YANG Adam	-	-	-	-	1%	3%	8%	13%	18%	19%	16%	11%	6%	3%	1%	-	-	-	-	-	-
10	ZHANG Henry	-	-	-	-	-	-	2%	4%	8%	13%	18%	19%	16%	11%	6%	2%	1%	-	-	-	-	-
12	KIM Nicholas	-	-	-	-	-	1%	4%	8%	14%	18%	19%	16%	10%	5%	2%	1%	-	-	-
13	ZHANG Daniel	-	-	-	-	2%	8%	17%	26%	25%	15%	5%	1%
14	BINDER Zach	-	-	-	1%	5%	14%	24%	27%	19%	8%	1%
15	YEROKHIN Michael	-	-	-	-	2%	8%	17%	24%	23%	16%	7%	2%	-	-	-
16	WONG Adam	-	-	3%	9%	19%	26%	23%	13%	5%	1%	-
17	BARTEL Jacob	2%	9%	22%	28%	22%	12%	4%	1%	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
18	ZHANG Andy	-	-	-	2%	7%	17%	25%	26%	16%	6%	1%
19	KWON Ethan	1%	6%	16%	26%	26%	17%	7%	2%	-	-
20	NUNNINK Phillip	9%	25%	31%	22%	10%	3%	1%	-	-	-	-
21	HU Oliver	-	-	2%	6%	15%	23%	25%	18%	8%	2%	-	-
22	SULLIVAN Jack	6%	27%	38%	23%	6%	-
23	CHEN James	2%	13%	34%	37%	15%
24	XIAO Enoch	3%	18%	37%	32%	10%
25	CHENG Matthew	-	4%	15%	28%	30%	17%	5%	1%	-
26	BELLUOMO David	6%	29%	38%	21%	5%	-
27	LEE Jacob	-	-	1%	5%	13%	25%	29%	19%	7%	1%
28	DICKSON Farr	20%	41%	29%	9%	1%
29	KO Christian	19%	38%	30%	11%	2%	-
32	COSTELLO Chaissen	5%	23%	37%	26%	9%	1%
34	GOBBO Alexander	7%	31%	40%	18%	3%	-	-	-	-
35	CAPRA Ethan	36%	41%	18%	4%	1%	-	-	-	-	-
36	PROSOLI Lovro	1%	12%	37%	39%	10%
37	FORTUNE Alex	17%	53%	28%	2%
38	SMITH Grant	16%	49%	33%	2%
39	WADLEY Brendan	48%	42%	10%	-
40	LIN Richard	1%	7%	28%	44%	20%
41	LIU Niles	< 1%	3%	26%	72%
42	TRAUGOT Brady	32%	45%	19%	3%	-

Explanation

The heatmap in this table provides a visual representation of the victory probability distribution for each fencer in their respective pools:

Each cell in a fencer's row corresponds to a specific number of victories, starting from the left with no victories and increasing to the right, indicating victories in all bouts.
The shading of each cell represents the probability of that particular victory outcome for the fencer. Darker shades indicate higher probabilities, suggesting that the outcome is more likely based on past performances. On the other hand, lighter shades point towards less probable outcomes.
The boxed number in a cell represents the actual number of victories the fencer achieved in the pool, making it easy to compare predicted probabilities with actual outcomes at a glance.
By examining the gradient from lighter to darker cells, you can get an intuitive sense of where a fencer's victories are more or less expected based on their historical performance.

This heatmap visualization offers an immediate understanding of each fencer's expected performance compared to their actual results.

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