Fairfax Challenge SYC/RJCC

Y-10 Men's Foil

Friday, March 21, 2025 at 12:00 PM

Fredericksburg Convention Center - Fredericksburg, VA, USA

Probability density of pool victories

Birth Year

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Explore the pool victory probability density for each fencer, with their actual victories highlighted in a box. Learn more.

#	Name	Number of victories
#	Name	0	1	2	3	4	5	6
1	WU Wallace	-	-	-	2%	19%	80%
2	JIN George	-	-	-	2%	14%	40%	43%
3	SUAREZ Lucas	-	1%	10%	29%	40%	20%
3	SONG Enoch	-	-	1%	6%	24%	42%	28%
5	HOFFMAN Zane	-	5%	25%	45%	22%	3%
6	MOON Nolan	6%	25%	39%	24%	5%	-
7	LIN Ziyue	-	-	2%	15%	43%	40%
8	SHOU Raymond	-	-	1%	10%	42%	47%
9	CHEN Kyler	-	1%	9%	32%	43%	15%
10	KIAYIAS Anthony	-	3%	17%	44%	36%
11	LIU Bradley	-	2%	10%	27%	36%	22%	4%
12	YANG Luca	-	6%	25%	38%	25%	6%
13	YOON Mason	-	3%	16%	37%	34%	10%
14	WILSON Jacob	1%	8%	29%	44%	18%
15	PARK Joshua	1%	6%	25%	41%	26%	2%
16	LIU Mason	2%	13%	34%	36%	14%	1%
17	HUA Isaac	1%	9%	29%	36%	20%	5%	-
18	TURBAT Travis	-	1%	9%	29%	41%	20%
19	FANG Lionel	-	4%	16%	33%	32%	14%	2%
20	HAN Jayden	7%	32%	37%	19%	5%	1%	-
21	CHONG Cooper	3%	20%	39%	28%	8%	1%
22	KUTATELADZE Danieli	1%	7%	27%	40%	21%	3%
23	HUANG Dalynn	-	4%	19%	37%	31%	9%
24	HOLLANDER Max	-	-	6%	28%	47%	18%
25	LU Ethan	16%	38%	32%	12%	2%	-	-
26	GRIFFIN Andrew	15%	39%	34%	11%	1%
27	XU Jonathan	5%	29%	43%	20%	3%	-
28	BAIER Leon	2%	17%	37%	31%	12%	2%
29	KANAN Noland	-	1%	7%	23%	36%	26%	6%
30	LALONDE Oscar	14%	38%	35%	12%	1%
31	LEE Ryan	18%	45%	31%	7%	-	-
32	LI Mason	-	5%	19%	34%	29%	11%	1%
33	HUYNH Kaleb	-	2%	13%	34%	37%	14%
34	TARDIFF Owen	-	5%	20%	35%	29%	10%	1%
35	REN Jonathan	2%	19%	37%	30%	11%	1%
36	HAN Owen	17%	40%	32%	10%	1%	-
37	LEONG Michael	9%	31%	38%	19%	3%	-
38	LIANG Anker	16%	37%	31%	13%	3%	-	-
39	YOUNG Esmonde	21%	42%	28%	8%	1%	-
40	WU Brian	23%	44%	26%	6%	1%	-
41	MENZEL Lucas	-	2%	11%	29%	35%	19%	3%
42	HOFFMAN Sacha	29%	43%	23%	5%	-	-
43	HUDSON Jedidiah	21%	43%	29%	7%	-
44	PARMAR Aryaveer	25%	44%	25%	6%	1%	-
45	WOOD Theodore	65%	30%	5%	-	-	-
46	REUBEN Samuel	56%	35%	8%	1%	-	-	-
47	MERA-BRITO Gabriel	39%	44%	15%	2%	-	-
48	FORBES Xavier	9%	34%	39%	16%	2%	-
49	CREANGA Matthew	< 1%	15%	45%	31%	8%	1%	-

Explanation

The heatmap in this table provides a visual representation of the victory probability distribution for each fencer in their respective pools:

Each cell in a fencer's row corresponds to a specific number of victories, starting from the left with no victories and increasing to the right, indicating victories in all bouts.
The shading of each cell represents the probability of that particular victory outcome for the fencer. Darker shades indicate higher probabilities, suggesting that the outcome is more likely based on past performances. On the other hand, lighter shades point towards less probable outcomes.
The boxed number in a cell represents the actual number of victories the fencer achieved in the pool, making it easy to compare predicted probabilities with actual outcomes at a glance.
By examining the gradient from lighter to darker cells, you can get an intuitive sense of where a fencer's victories are more or less expected based on their historical performance.

This heatmap visualization offers an immediate understanding of each fencer's expected performance compared to their actual results.

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