Manchen Friday Night Epee Open

Senior Mixed Épée

Friday, March 21, 2025 at 6:15 PM

Manchen Academy of Fencing - Whitehouse Station, NJ, USA

Probability density of pool victories

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Explore the pool victory probability density for each fencer, with their actual victories highlighted in a box. Learn more.

#	Name	Number of victories
#	Name	0	1	2	3	4	5	6	7
1	NORMILE Nicholas	-	1%	8%	23%	35%	26%	7%
2	KRISHNAN Skanda	-	-	1%	8%	23%	36%	25%	7%
3	LI morgan	-	4%	17%	32%	29%	14%	3%	-
3	ANAFI Ari	-	-	4%	17%	32%	30%	14%	3%
5	KOEPPEL Levi	-	-	2%	10%	29%	41%	18%	1%
6	MATTO Edward	-	-	1%	8%	26%	40%	25%
7	MARTIN Mason	-	1%	5%	18%	33%	30%	12%	2%
8	LIU Ethan	5%	22%	36%	27%	9%	1%	-	-
9	SALA Lupo Indro Luca	-	-	-	-	1%	14%	60%	25%
10	LI Caroline	-	2%	10%	23%	30%	23%	10%	2%
11	ZUKOFSKY Zachary	-	1%	7%	22%	36%	27%	7%
12	NORMILE Jon	-	-	-	-	< 1%	3%	53%	43%
13	MORTON William	1%	6%	19%	31%	28%	13%	2%
14	NG Nico	1%	9%	25%	34%	23%	7%	1%	-
15	PUSULURI Ishaan	1%	6%	21%	33%	27%	11%	2%	-
16	PRAKASH Rahul	-	-	< 1%	3%	14%	31%	36%	16%
17	CZEPLA Andrew	-	4%	16%	32%	31%	14%	2%	< 1%
18	HOWARD Jackson	-	7%	26%	37%	23%	6%	1%
19	ANDERSON Riley	-	-	-	4%	20%	42%	29%	3%
20	BLAKESLEE Garrett	1%	12%	31%	33%	17%	4%	-
21	LI Ryan	6%	23%	35%	25%	9%	1%	-	-
22	QUIROGA Jason	-	13%	34%	33%	16%	4%	-
23	CORRIDON Jack	1%	8%	27%	36%	21%	6%	1%
24	SWANSON lars	-	1%	5%	17%	33%	33%	13%
25	WHEELER Jackson	1%	6%	19%	32%	29%	12%	2%	-
26	LIN Yufei	1%	9%	25%	34%	23%	7%	1%	-
27	ALEXANDER Christopher	-	5%	21%	34%	26%	10%	2%	-
28	FERREIRA Thomas	-	5%	20%	34%	28%	11%	2%
29	REYES Camila	28%	42%	23%	6%	1%	-	-
30	LEE Kevin	6%	37%	38%	16%	3%	-	-
31	MARRAN John	12%	40%	33%	12%	2%	-	-	-
32	SCHROPPE Henry	20%	38%	29%	11%	2%	-	-	-
33	MANTINAOS Constantinos	45%	40%	13%	2%	-	-	-	-
34	ROLANDO Doc	-	3%	14%	30%	32%	16%	3%
35	MCSWEENEY Janie	-	2%	10%	26%	33%	22%	7%	1%
36	GAYEVSKY Maximilian	2%	18%	36%	30%	12%	2%	-	-
37	SODHIA Rohit	5%	22%	35%	26%	10%	2%	-	-
38	ANDERSON Isabela	37%	42%	18%	3%	-	-	-

Explanation

The heatmap in this table provides a visual representation of the victory probability distribution for each fencer in their respective pools:

Each cell in a fencer's row corresponds to a specific number of victories, starting from the left with no victories and increasing to the right, indicating victories in all bouts.
The shading of each cell represents the probability of that particular victory outcome for the fencer. Darker shades indicate higher probabilities, suggesting that the outcome is more likely based on past performances. On the other hand, lighter shades point towards less probable outcomes.
The boxed number in a cell represents the actual number of victories the fencer achieved in the pool, making it easy to compare predicted probabilities with actual outcomes at a glance.
By examining the gradient from lighter to darker cells, you can get an intuitive sense of where a fencer's victories are more or less expected based on their historical performance.

This heatmap visualization offers an immediate understanding of each fencer's expected performance compared to their actual results.

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