2025 TCFC March Challenges

Senior Mixed Épée

Sunday, March 23, 2025 at 1:30 PM

Twin Cities Fencing Club - St. Paul, MN, USA

Probability density of pool victories

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Explore the pool victory probability density for each fencer, with their actual victories highlighted in a box. Learn more.

#	Name	Number of victories
#	Name	0	1	2	3	4	5
1	TOLLEFSON Zachary	-	-	3%	19%	46%	32%
2	XIONG Angelica	-	-	-	10%	52%	38%
3	LIMER Avi	-	-	5%	24%	46%	25%
3	TAKATA Ben	-	-	3%	18%	46%	33%
5	SIEDOW William	-	-	3%	19%	48%	30%
6	CHO Joseph	-	-	5%	27%	48%	20%
7	OZANNE Jeffrey S.	-	-	5%	23%	45%	27%
8	ROBBINS Christopher (Chris) W.	-	5%	23%	44%	27%
9	BISSEN Quinn	-	1%	9%	39%	42%	11%
10	TAHA Raymond	12%	38%	37%	12%	1%
11	ROWLAND Marsden	-	1%	9%	41%	41%	9%
12	HONEK Kyle	1%	12%	34%	36%	14%	2%
13	MOHAMED Sabir	6%	27%	40%	23%	5%	-
14	HALULA Frank	4%	23%	40%	26%	6%	-
15	CAVEN Henry	23%	42%	27%	8%	1%	-
16	SOTO Michael	6%	27%	40%	23%	4%
17	SCHLIEP Anna J.	1%	7%	32%	50%	10%	-
18	NARANJO David E.	2%	15%	37%	35%	11%
19	CULVER Hannah	2%	24%	48%	23%	3%	-
20	RUBIN Joshua	9%	36%	41%	13%	1%	-
21	FRALEY Orion	22%	41%	28%	8%	1%
22	STONE Ken	33%	44%	19%	3%	-	-
23	JORGENSEN Kjirsten	6%	28%	44%	22%	1%	-
24	STENZEL Henry	59%	34%	7%	1%	-	-
25	HELLMAN Andrew	11%	38%	37%	13%	2%	-
26	SANFORD Wesley	5%	25%	40%	25%	5%	-
27	SCHULTZ David	11%	35%	36%	15%	2%	-
28	WILLER Ryan	45%	42%	12%	1%	-	-
29	CAVEN Emerald	7%	39%	39%	13%	1%	-

Explanation

The heatmap in this table provides a visual representation of the victory probability distribution for each fencer in their respective pools:

Each cell in a fencer's row corresponds to a specific number of victories, starting from the left with no victories and increasing to the right, indicating victories in all bouts.
The shading of each cell represents the probability of that particular victory outcome for the fencer. Darker shades indicate higher probabilities, suggesting that the outcome is more likely based on past performances. On the other hand, lighter shades point towards less probable outcomes.
The boxed number in a cell represents the actual number of victories the fencer achieved in the pool, making it easy to compare predicted probabilities with actual outcomes at a glance.
By examining the gradient from lighter to darker cells, you can get an intuitive sense of where a fencer's victories are more or less expected based on their historical performance.

This heatmap visualization offers an immediate understanding of each fencer's expected performance compared to their actual results.

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