Fortune SYC/RJCC & Y8

Y-10 Women's Épée

Friday, March 28, 2025 at 8:00 AM

Ontario Convention Center - Ontario, CA, USA

Probability density of pool victories

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Explore the pool victory probability density for each fencer, with their actual victories highlighted in a box. Learn more.

#	Name	Number of victories
#	Name	0	1	2	3	4	5	6
1	KOU Cynthia	-	-	3%	23%	62%	12%
2	SIU Mila	-	-	3%	16%	43%	38%
3	WANG Phoebe	-	1%	8%	27%	39%	21%	4%
3	WONG Isabelle	-	-	2%	13%	34%	38%	13%
5	DU Chelsea	-	-	-	4%	21%	43%	30%
6	YANG Nina	-	-	3%	17%	45%	35%
7	LI zoey	2%	15%	37%	35%	11%	1%
8	WANG Kercedes Ye	-	-	5%	26%	50%	19%
9	KUANG Isabella	-	-	1%	6%	23%	42%	29%
10	MUHLENBRUCH Cora	4%	40%	40%	14%	2%	-
11	HE Elsa	1%	8%	30%	42%	17%	2%
12	KWAK Olivia	-	1%	6%	25%	46%	23%
13	CHONG Emma	1%	6%	20%	33%	28%	11%	2%
14	DAI Amy	1%	10%	29%	35%	20%	5%	-
15	RONG Hilary	-	11%	40%	38%	11%	1%
16	ROSENFELD Liv	19%	43%	29%	8%	1%	-	-
17	SUN Joanna	-	1%	6%	21%	37%	28%	7%
18	TRIVULCE Scarlett	-	4%	21%	42%	30%	4%
19	KIM Toni	2%	18%	39%	31%	9%	1%
20	SHIH Eva	-	3%	16%	36%	32%	12%	1%
21	DEFENSOR Ella	5%	26%	41%	23%	5%	-
22	GROTH Lillian	15%	41%	33%	10%	1%	-
23	YU Elise	-	6%	22%	37%	27%	8%	-
24	AMARILLAS Ekaterina	7%	26%	35%	23%	7%	1%	-
25	LEE Layla	5%	26%	41%	22%	5%	1%	-
26	LA Evelyn	43%	41%	14%	2%	-	-
27	LEUNG Dana	-	1%	9%	31%	43%	16%
28	YAO Astrid	28%	44%	23%	5%	-	-	-
29	LA Abigail	36%	42%	18%	4%	-	-	-
30	YE Charlotte	79%	20%	2%	-	-	-
31	HWANG Faith	10%	39%	36%	13%	2%	-
32	SOHL Ella	33%	44%	19%	3%	-	-

Explanation

The heatmap in this table provides a visual representation of the victory probability distribution for each fencer in their respective pools:

Each cell in a fencer's row corresponds to a specific number of victories, starting from the left with no victories and increasing to the right, indicating victories in all bouts.
The shading of each cell represents the probability of that particular victory outcome for the fencer. Darker shades indicate higher probabilities, suggesting that the outcome is more likely based on past performances. On the other hand, lighter shades point towards less probable outcomes.
The boxed number in a cell represents the actual number of victories the fencer achieved in the pool, making it easy to compare predicted probabilities with actual outcomes at a glance.
By examining the gradient from lighter to darker cells, you can get an intuitive sense of where a fencer's victories are more or less expected based on their historical performance.

This heatmap visualization offers an immediate understanding of each fencer's expected performance compared to their actual results.

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