The Cherry Blossom - D1A/VET ROC

Div I-A Women's Saber

Sunday, March 30, 2025 at 11:00 AM

University of Maryland, Reckord Armory - College Park, MD, USA

Probability density of pool victories

Birth Year

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Explore the pool victory probability density for each fencer, with their actual victories highlighted in a box. Learn more.

#	Name	Number of victories
#	Name	0	1	2	3	4	5	6
1	JOHNSON Lydia	-	-	-	1%	8%	34%	58%
2	DAVIDOVA Kira	-	6%	23%	39%	27%	6%
3	KOLMYKOVA Aleksandra	-	-	1%	6%	23%	42%	28%
3	MACKAY Katherine	-	5%	21%	37%	29%	8%
5	PROBASCO Leila	-	4%	18%	35%	30%	11%	1%
6	SEVASTOPULO Sahra	4%	19%	34%	29%	12%	2%	-
7	CHANG Norah	-	3%	15%	33%	32%	14%	2%
8	HUA Catherine W.	-	1%	9%	26%	36%	23%	5%
9	YUCEL Emine I.	-	-	-	1%	9%	39%	51%
10	XU Emily T.	-	4%	19%	37%	31%	10%
11	BUTMAN Chloe Alexandra	-	11%	51%	30%	6%	< 1%	-
12	BERNARD Kathryn	-	4%	18%	35%	30%	11%	1%
13	TA-ZHOU Emma	5%	24%	39%	25%	6%	1%
14	TENG Christine Renmei	-	-	7%	33%	41%	17%	2%
15	ELLIS-FURLONG Ava	-	2%	11%	29%	36%	19%	3%
16	HENRY Soraya S.	-	2%	17%	37%	33%	11%
17	BARROSO Isabela	-	-	2%	12%	32%	38%	15%
18	COLBY Mercer	2%	15%	36%	32%	13%	2%	-
19	JOHNSON Laura S.	-	-	3%	18%	43%	37%
20	SCHAIBLE Sofia L.	-	-	8%	33%	41%	16%	2%
21	WEINSTEIN Hannah	7%	29%	38%	20%	5%	1%	-
22	SPEARS Mya B	-	1%	8%	25%	37%	24%	6%
23	KIM Grace	4%	23%	37%	26%	9%	1%	-
24	KHOST Maeve	3%	14%	31%	32%	16%	4%	-
25	WANG Erica	17%	45%	29%	8%	1%	-
26	PASUPULETI Laya	36%	43%	18%	3%	-	-
27	SIERRA Kate	-	-	1%	11%	36%	41%	11%
28	MCAFEE Jada	9%	34%	37%	17%	3%	-
29	VANCE Beth S.	-	3%	18%	38%	32%	10%
30	BARBORIAK Emily	14%	35%	33%	15%	3%	-	-
31	NADKARNI Marisa	-	4%	17%	33%	32%	13%	1%
32	YANG Jenny J.	-	< 1%	1%	7%	25%	42%	25%
33	ARRI Gaia	24%	58%	17%	1%	-	-	-
34	NGUYEN Anna	7%	25%	36%	24%	8%	1%	-
35	HIRSCH Lauren	37%	42%	17%	3%	-	-	-
36	PERRY Madelyn	6%	27%	37%	22%	7%	1%	-
37	MASTRONARDI Laura	43%	42%	13%	2%	-	-
38	SHINN-CUNNINGHAM Barbara	< 1%	4%	19%	38%	31%	8%
39	VANNIER Anouk	56%	36%	8%	1%	-	-	-
40	MARTIN Audrey	63%	35%	2%	-	-	-	-

Explanation

The heatmap in this table provides a visual representation of the victory probability distribution for each fencer in their respective pools:

Each cell in a fencer's row corresponds to a specific number of victories, starting from the left with no victories and increasing to the right, indicating victories in all bouts.
The shading of each cell represents the probability of that particular victory outcome for the fencer. Darker shades indicate higher probabilities, suggesting that the outcome is more likely based on past performances. On the other hand, lighter shades point towards less probable outcomes.
The boxed number in a cell represents the actual number of victories the fencer achieved in the pool, making it easy to compare predicted probabilities with actual outcomes at a glance.
By examining the gradient from lighter to darker cells, you can get an intuitive sense of where a fencer's victories are more or less expected based on their historical performance.

This heatmap visualization offers an immediate understanding of each fencer's expected performance compared to their actual results.

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