Duel of the East Coast ROC/RJCC/RYC

Y-12 Women's Épée

Sunday, May 4, 2025 at 3:30 PM

Greater Philadelphia Expo Center - Oaks, PA, USA

Probability density of pool victories

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Explore the pool victory probability density for each fencer, with their actual victories highlighted in a box. Learn more.

#	Name	Number of victories
#	Name	0	1	2	3	4	5	6
1	KAKANI Aditi	-	-	1%	7%	35%	57%
2	LEE Eden	-	-	-	1%	8%	34%	58%
3	HAN Emma	-	1%	7%	28%	42%	21%
3	RAJPUT Mahek	-	-	5%	26%	47%	21%
5	YOON Cora	2%	14%	35%	36%	13%
6	JU Jennifer	-	-	2%	15%	44%	38%
7	SIU Mila	-	2%	17%	40%	34%	6%
8	ZHANG Flora	2%	14%	33%	33%	15%	3%	-
9	XIE ANDREA	-	-	2%	10%	30%	39%	19%
10	KOUAME Candice	-	1%	5%	21%	42%	31%
11	CHEN Reina	1%	8%	27%	37%	22%	4%
12	FURMAN Elizabeth	-	1%	9%	30%	42%	19%
13	CHEN Laila	-	-	3%	14%	34%	36%	14%
14	BOUTSIKARIS Asha	1%	11%	30%	36%	19%	3%
15	KIM Abigail	-	5%	25%	42%	24%	3%
16	ZHAO Rachel	1%	15%	40%	34%	10%	1%
17	LUO MAOSHUEN	3%	17%	33%	31%	14%	3%	-
18	HOWARD Katherine	1%	10%	31%	40%	19%
19	LI Juliana	12%	34%	36%	16%	3%
20	PATEL Agena	5%	23%	37%	26%	8%	1%
21	YIN Elaine	-	5%	26%	43%	22%	3%
22	FEESER Alexia	-	5%	22%	39%	27%	6%
23	PATEL Aria	8%	29%	38%	21%	4%
24	YOUNG Penelope	-	5%	20%	38%	30%	6%	-
25	LIU Brinley	-	1%	6%	22%	37%	27%	7%
26	SAJJA Anwita	4%	22%	39%	27%	8%	1%
27	WANG Katherine	2%	13%	30%	33%	17%	4%	-
28	KUO Stella	1%	10%	29%	35%	19%	5%	-
29	ZHANG Anna	4%	20%	35%	29%	11%	1%
30	OZALP Tara	9%	43%	36%	11%	1%	-
31	ERATA Selena	33%	43%	20%	4%	-	-
32	SUN Sarah	12%	42%	34%	10%	1%	-
33	MISHIMA Quinn	15%	36%	32%	14%	3%	-	-
34	ABDALLAH Lily	6%	23%	35%	26%	9%	1%	-
35	CHANG Emma	16%	38%	33%	12%	1%
36	LOUGH Abbie	55%	37%	8%	-	-	-
37	YU sage	3%	22%	46%	24%	4%	-
38	KAUR Harjas	-	1%	10%	30%	38%	18%	2%
39	SELASSIE Semara	11%	36%	35%	15%	3%	-	-
40	HUGHES Mackenzie	34%	43%	19%	4%	-	-	-
41	KOGAN Maya	15%	42%	32%	9%	1%	-
42	BONDE Trisha	29%	42%	23%	5%	1%	-
44	ZHU Kaylee	64%	31%	5%	-	-	-

Explanation

The heatmap in this table provides a visual representation of the victory probability distribution for each fencer in their respective pools:

Each cell in a fencer's row corresponds to a specific number of victories, starting from the left with no victories and increasing to the right, indicating victories in all bouts.
The shading of each cell represents the probability of that particular victory outcome for the fencer. Darker shades indicate higher probabilities, suggesting that the outcome is more likely based on past performances. On the other hand, lighter shades point towards less probable outcomes.
The boxed number in a cell represents the actual number of victories the fencer achieved in the pool, making it easy to compare predicted probabilities with actual outcomes at a glance.
By examining the gradient from lighter to darker cells, you can get an intuitive sense of where a fencer's victories are more or less expected based on their historical performance.

This heatmap visualization offers an immediate understanding of each fencer's expected performance compared to their actual results.

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