2025 Bay State Games

Senior Men's Épée

Sunday, June 1, 2025 at 9:00 AM

Boston Fencing Club - Boston, MA, USA

Probability density of pool victories

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Explore the probability of achieving at least a certain number of victories in the pool for each fencer, with their actual victories highlighted in a box. Learn more.

# Name Number of victories
0 1 2 3 4 5
1 FEINBERG Gabriel M. 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 85%
2 MACARTY Jordan T. 100% 100% 100% 99% 87% 31%
3 MELCHER Jack H. 100% 100% 100% 100% 99% 81%
3 WEISS Miles J. 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 96%
5 LAI Boden 100% 100% 100% 94% 68% 24%
6 HONDOR Robert D. 100% 100% 100% 100% 93% 57%
7 MCMILLAN Jackson V. 100% 96% 76% 40% 11% 1%
8 STEVENSON Ryan 100% 99% 89% 56% 16% -
9 SMITH Troy H. 100% 100% 99% 91% 65% 24%
10 YIN Chujun 100% 96% 72% 28% 3% -
11 ZAYDMAN David M. 100% 100% 100% 95% 69% 22%
12 ROGAK Benjamin A. 100% 100% 100% 100% 99% 80%
13 SANTOS Francisco M. 100% 99% 94% 73% 37% 9%
14 WANG Justin 100% 100% 100% 94% 68% 17%
15 WANG Xiangdong 100% 99% 90% 64% 27% 5%
16 KABA Elias 100% 93% 62% 22% 4% -
17 MOSKOWITZ Martin 100% 96% 76% 40% 12% 2%
18 SONG Troy 100% 100% 98% 85% 47% 11%
19 BAJAJ Nakul 100% 98% 82% 46% 12% 1%
20 WU Joseph 100% 100% 100% 100% 96% 55%
21 ZHANG Roland 100% 97% 78% 39% 8% -
21 SONG Changze 100% 97% 80% 41% 9% -
23 SIALA Omar 100% 99% 85% 44% 6% -
24 QUIRK Dylan 100% 97% 82% 49% 17% 2%
25 ORESKOVIC Olivier 100% 88% 54% 18% 2% -
26 CHEN Allen 100% 100% 93% 65% 23% 3%
27 WANG Zichun 100% 100% 97% 83% 48% 13%
28 MEN Junda 100% 99% 92% 69% 33% 7%
29 GLUSHKOV David 100% 98% 77% 31% 3% -
30 SHREM Samuel G. 100% 100% 100% 95% 68% 8%
31 ZOU Xianyang (Max) 100% 100% 95% 73% 33% 3%
32 GU Eric 100% 49% 11% 1% - -
33 WU Jonathan 100% 100% 100% 98% 84% 39%
34 WILSON Ian G. 100% 97% 76% 34% 6% -
35 BRADSHAW Carter 100% 99% 91% 66% 29% 6%
36 O'BRIEN Eamon 100% 98% 83% 47% 12% -
37 LI Ray 100% 89% 51% 15% 2% -
38 SANTOS Felipe 100% 99% 84% 43% 6% -
39 DOWD Peter L. 100% 89% 55% 19% 3% -
40 XIE Brandon 100% 99% 94% 72% 36% 8%
41 BRUEGGEMANN Max 100% 63% 18% 2% - -
42 ZHANG Jonathan 100% 83% 43% 11% 1% -
43 PAN Anthony 100% 92% 60% 21% 3% -
44 LIU Jeremiah W. 100% 96% 73% 30% 5% -
45 GERSEN Jacob 100% 100% 96% 77% 35% 3%
46 ROSIELLO Francesco 100% 58% 16% 2% - -
47 ZELIN Sam J. 100% 100% 94% 69% 26% -
48 MARSHALL William L. 100% 95% 72% 35% 9% 1%
49 PESSIN Nadav 100% 80% 34% 6% - -
50 MARINI Davide 100% 97% 73% 31% 5% -
51 WANG Zhenhai 100% 86% 49% 15% 2% -
51 WHITE Aidan 100% 84% 36% 6% - -
53 WANG-SONG Evan 100% 87% 47% 11% 1% -
54 WENGER Caleb 100% 95% 67% 25% 4% -
55 LIN Lucas 100% 71% 27% 5% - -
56 MURRAY John P. 100% 71% 29% 7% 1% -
57 LU Eric 100% 54% 12% 1% - -
58 HANNA Alexander 100% 51% 10% 1% - -
59 OTTAVIANO Aaron 100% 69% 28% 6% 1% -
59 NGUYEN Trung 100% 58% 16% 2% - -

Explanation

The heatmap in this table provides a visual representation of the victory probability distribution for each fencer in their respective pools:

This heatmap visualization offers an immediate understanding of each fencer's expected performance compared to their actual results.