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Senior Men's Épée

Monday, July 21, 2025 at 9:00 AM

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Probability density of pool victories

Birth Year

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Explore the pool victory probability density for each fencer, with their actual victories highlighted in a box. Learn more.

#	Name	Number of victories
#	Name	0	1	2	3	4	5
1	BEZRODNOV Alexander	-	-	-	1%	17%	81%
2	BEZRODNOV Michael	-	-	-	5%	30%	65%
3	GINZBURG Adam	-	3%	16%	38%	36%	7%
4	NORMILE Nicholas	-	3%	25%	43%	25%	4%
5	KUGLER Luke	-	2%	17%	43%	34%	5%
6	LIOZNYANSKY Simon	4%	22%	40%	28%	6%
7	MITEV Alexander	-	12%	43%	35%	10%	1%
8	REPIC Oliver	-	5%	24%	43%	26%	2%
9	KIM Henry	-	5%	23%	43%	27%	2%
10	MAO Benjamin	-	2%	19%	44%	29%	6%
11	SUNDER-RAJAN Sameer	-	-	1%	14%	44%	40%
12	MAZUR Daniil	1%	9%	32%	42%	16%
13	ENGLERT Arthur	-	3%	17%	37%	34%	10%
14	HURSEVER Timur	6%	25%	38%	25%	6%	-
15	MATVEEV Valentin S.	-	6%	25%	43%	26%
16	ENSLEY Diego	5%	23%	38%	26%	7%	-
17	ALEXANDER Jacksen	21%	42%	29%	8%	1%	-
18	SHTEYNBLIK Michael	59%	35%	6%	< 1%	-	-
19	PERRONE Riccardo	5%	27%	41%	23%	5%	-
20	ARBONA Mauricio	15%	37%	33%	13%	2%	-
21	LUTYENS-HUMFREY Charlie	31%	44%	21%	4%	-
22	BURATTI Fausto	16%	42%	32%	9%	1%
23	AHMED Mohsen	5%	41%	40%	13%	1%	-
24	HSU Joshua	13%	36%	35%	14%	2%	-
25	HELMY Richard	5%	32%	51%	11%	1%	-
26	POMA Antonio	22%	44%	27%	6%	1%	-
27	RVACHEV Michael	7%	29%	41%	20%	3%	-
28	WIMMER Nathaniel P.	< 1%	-	-	5%	31%	64%
29	LORENZ Nathan	80%	18%	1%	-	-	-

Explanation

The heatmap in this table provides a visual representation of the victory probability distribution for each fencer in their respective pools:

Each cell in a fencer's row corresponds to a specific number of victories, starting from the left with no victories and increasing to the right, indicating victories in all bouts.
The shading of each cell represents the probability of that particular victory outcome for the fencer. Darker shades indicate higher probabilities, suggesting that the outcome is more likely based on past performances. On the other hand, lighter shades point towards less probable outcomes.
The boxed number in a cell represents the actual number of victories the fencer achieved in the pool, making it easy to compare predicted probabilities with actual outcomes at a glance.
By examining the gradient from lighter to darker cells, you can get an intuitive sense of where a fencer's victories are more or less expected based on their historical performance.

This heatmap visualization offers an immediate understanding of each fencer's expected performance compared to their actual results.

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