MoDuel Open Epee

Senior Mixed Épée

Sunday, July 27, 2025 at 10:00 AM

Modern Duelists Fencing Academy - Elkton, MD, USA

Probability density of pool victories

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Explore the pool victory probability density for each fencer, with their actual victories highlighted in a box. Learn more.

#	Name	Number of victories
#	Name	0	1	2	3	4	5	6
1	GUNDUBOGULA Saket	-	1%	7%	25%	38%	25%	3%
2	SERAFIN Ben	-	-	-	-	4%	29%	67%
3	TIRRELL Justin J.	-	-	-	-	4%	27%	68%
3	GLOGOWSKI Konrad	-	-	-	1%	12%	40%	47%
5	O'DOWD Andrew J.	-	-	-	1%	11%	54%	34%
6	TATE William Isom	-	-	-	-	5%	31%	64%
7	KAPLAN Maddox	-	-	2%	15%	42%	36%	6%
8	GAMBINO Robert A.	-	-	-	5%	29%	66%
9	GOVOROV Alexander	-	-	1%	13%	45%	36%	6%
10	KIM Zac	-	1%	11%	33%	37%	16%	2%
11	CZACHOROWSKI Mark	2%	15%	34%	33%	14%	2%	-
12	DOLBOW Trevor	-	-	5%	21%	38%	29%	6%
13	SOKALSKI Edwin	-	4%	19%	38%	31%	7%	-
14	LENAR David	1%	6%	22%	35%	26%	8%	1%
15	KARASICK Andrew	-	1%	17%	39%	32%	10%	1%
16	VANDINGSTEE Keith	-	-	3%	19%	43%	30%	4%
17	LUM-DEBONO Adam	-	5%	24%	43%	25%	3%
18	CHAWLA Aarav	-	2%	13%	31%	36%	17%	1%
19	BERGMANN Beatrix	1%	11%	28%	35%	20%	5%	-
20	TRAN Alex	4%	26%	42%	23%	4%	-
21	SCHROPPE Henry	2%	13%	31%	33%	17%	4%	-
22	MURPHY Megan	1%	9%	27%	36%	22%	5%	-
23	SHIN Jamie	6%	28%	42%	20%	3%	-	-
24	BOWIE Charlotta	24%	44%	27%	5%	-	-
25	STARKWEATHER Jeff	-	-	4%	18%	37%	32%	9%
26	MAGUIRE Timothy	-	3%	23%	47%	23%	4%	-
27	STOUT Zachary	2%	16%	37%	33%	11%	1%	-
28	FAN Yonghua	15%	38%	33%	12%	2%	-	-
29	DARLING Giles	-	2%	21%	40%	28%	8%	1%
30	SIMS Martin L.	4%	23%	39%	27%	8%	1%	-
31	ZHANG Jason	-	1%	12%	42%	40%	5%
32	YU Kenneth	4%	21%	36%	27%	9%	1%	-
33	GRIETZER Elizabeth	33%	42%	20%	4%	-	-	-
34	LOPATIN Sergei	29%	53%	17%	2%	-	-
35	WOHNER Kenneth S.	2%	13%	31%	33%	17%	3%	-
36	FONS Jennifer	38%	45%	15%	1%	-	-	-
37	DEXTER Danny	46%	46%	7%	-	-	-	-
38	FONS Amandine	37%	53%	10%	1%	-	-	-
39	ALPERS Brian	21%	41%	28%	9%	1%	-	-
40	WEIRICH Mackenzie	22%	50%	25%	3%	-	-	-
41	PARIKH Rowan	48%	38%	12%	2%	-	-	-

Explanation

The heatmap in this table provides a visual representation of the victory probability distribution for each fencer in their respective pools:

Each cell in a fencer's row corresponds to a specific number of victories, starting from the left with no victories and increasing to the right, indicating victories in all bouts.
The shading of each cell represents the probability of that particular victory outcome for the fencer. Darker shades indicate higher probabilities, suggesting that the outcome is more likely based on past performances. On the other hand, lighter shades point towards less probable outcomes.
The boxed number in a cell represents the actual number of victories the fencer achieved in the pool, making it easy to compare predicted probabilities with actual outcomes at a glance.
By examining the gradient from lighter to darker cells, you can get an intuitive sense of where a fencer's victories are more or less expected based on their historical performance.

This heatmap visualization offers an immediate understanding of each fencer's expected performance compared to their actual results.

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