Air Force ROC (D1A, DV2, VET), RJCC

Div II Women's Épée

Sunday, September 14, 2025 at 1:30 PM

Air Force Cadet Field House - Air Force Academy, CO, USA

Probability density of pool victories

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Explore the pool victory probability density for each fencer, with their actual victories highlighted in a box. Learn more.

#	Name	Number of victories
#	Name	0	1	2	3	4	5	6
1	LANE Leah	-	-	4%	16%	34%	34%	13%
2	JORDAN Zoe	-	1%	6%	22%	36%	28%	8%
3	BURKS Madison	1%	9%	27%	36%	22%	5%
3	RALSTON Katherine	-	3%	13%	30%	34%	18%	3%
5	HILL Aurora	19%	43%	31%	7%
6	KENT Laurel	-	-	1%	9%	27%	40%	22%
7	SHADE nadine	-	1%	5%	19%	36%	31%	9%
8	CHIOU-WILLIAMS Matea	2%	14%	32%	33%	16%	3%
9	GOODWINOTONO Violet	1%	10%	28%	35%	21%	5%
10	CHENIER Amelia	15%	38%	33%	12%	2%	-
11	LEWIS-RAMIREZ Lily	1%	8%	24%	35%	24%	8%	1%
12	XU Emily (Hua)	1%	10%	30%	37%	19%	4%
13	FREEMAN Katherine	-	2%	11%	32%	39%	16%
14	HANEY Kimberly M.	-	1%	8%	28%	42%	22%
15	SCHLIEP Anna J.	-	1%	7%	24%	36%	25%	6%
16	JORGENSEN Kjirsten	-	5%	19%	35%	30%	10%
17	BOWDEN Lily	2%	16%	34%	31%	14%	3%	-
18	LEE Lauren Jinju	15%	40%	35%	10%
19	SEO Jasmine	1%	11%	29%	35%	20%	4%
20	THOMAS Mackenzie	24%	43%	25%	6%	1%	-	-
21	OSBORNE E. Guadalupe	17%	43%	33%	7%
22	NIMIJAN emerie	10%	39%	34%	13%	3%	-	-
23	HOEHLE Stacy A.	-	5%	20%	34%	28%	11%	2%
24	STEPHAN Ella Whitney	3%	19%	36%	30%	11%	1%
24	LAMOREAUX Collette	24%	43%	26%	7%	1%	-
26	OSBORNE Maria	39%	41%	17%	3%	-	-
27	JORGENSEN Rebekah	1%	6%	22%	35%	26%	9%	1%
28	SCHMIDT Tessa	11%	32%	34%	17%	4%	1%	-
29	LAMOREAUX Savannah	3%	21%	45%	31%
30	CART Jodi	42%	41%	15%	2%	-	-	-

Explanation

The heatmap in this table provides a visual representation of the victory probability distribution for each fencer in their respective pools:

Each cell in a fencer's row corresponds to a specific number of victories, starting from the left with no victories and increasing to the right, indicating victories in all bouts.
The shading of each cell represents the probability of that particular victory outcome for the fencer. Darker shades indicate higher probabilities, suggesting that the outcome is more likely based on past performances. On the other hand, lighter shades point towards less probable outcomes.
The boxed number in a cell represents the actual number of victories the fencer achieved in the pool, making it easy to compare predicted probabilities with actual outcomes at a glance.
By examining the gradient from lighter to darker cells, you can get an intuitive sense of where a fencer's victories are more or less expected based on their historical performance.

This heatmap visualization offers an immediate understanding of each fencer's expected performance compared to their actual results.

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