SITS Grand Reopening 3 Weapon Tournament

Senior Men's Épée

Sunday, September 14, 2025 at 8:00 AM

Sword in the Scroll Fencing Academy - Willimantic, CT, USA

Probability density of pool victories

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Explore the pool victory probability density for each fencer, with their actual victories highlighted in a box. Learn more.

#	Name	Number of victories
#	Name	0	1	2	3	4	5
1	SACCOMANNO Shelby	-	10%	34%	40%	16%
2	LIU Jeremiah W.	-	2%	14%	35%	36%	12%
3	RUSSELL Edward	-	1%	7%	27%	46%	20%
3	BELLIVEAU Raven C.	-	-	-	3%	26%	71%
5	KELLEY Hayden	-	2%	17%	45%	36%
6	HELMY Richard	-	4%	23%	42%	27%	3%
7	ECKERT Kevin M.	-	9%	34%	41%	15%
8	JENNINGS Adin	-	2%	17%	43%	37%
9	ZELIN Sam J.	-	-	5%	22%	45%	27%
9	BRASSARD Calvin	-	4%	20%	39%	29%	7%
11	WHITE Aidan	8%	34%	40%	17%	2%
12	FENWICK Luke A.	-	1%	6%	24%	43%	27%
13	ZHANG Jonathan	6%	27%	40%	23%	5%	-
14	SENERTH Ian J.	-	-	4%	22%	46%	28%
15	LAW Oliver	27%	48%	21%	3%	-
16	GREEN Logan	3%	18%	37%	31%	11%	1%
17	BROWN Henry	5%	26%	41%	24%	4%	-
18	BUSH Thomas	-	-	2%	15%	44%	39%
19	CUFF Joe	41%	44%	14%	2%	-	-
20	SKLAR Davida	-	7%	31%	43%	18%
21	HAN Nathan	35%	46%	17%	2%	-
22	PEZZINO Matthew	4%	25%	41%	25%	5%
22	CROTTY James	1%	9%	34%	41%	15%
24	BEEVER Logan	81%	18%	1%	-	-
25	BOISLARD Jacob R.	7%	28%	39%	22%	5%	-
26	ZHANG Qing	14%	39%	33%	11%	2%	-
27	BANNEN Nicholas	1%	13%	37%	37%	11%
28	SONPAL Winslow	20%	46%	27%	6%	1%	-
29	REELS Eric J.	4%	22%	39%	27%	8%	1%
30	LIU Kun	3%	19%	39%	30%	8%	1%
31	SPRINGER Elijah	1%	14%	41%	36%	9%
32	MICKEY Christopher J.	1%	13%	38%	36%	11%	1%
33	PAGE Duncan	-	5%	26%	43%	23%	2%
34	WOLFORD Benjamin	11%	35%	36%	15%	2%	-
35	BUMPUS Isaias	34%	44%	19%	3%	-	-
36	MOSHIER Calvin	25%	42%	25%	7%	1%	-
37	GIORDANO Nathan	46%	40%	12%	1%	-
37	HARRIS Noah	2%	34%	43%	18%	3%
39	KLAWITER Kai	33%	43%	20%	4%	-	-

Explanation

The heatmap in this table provides a visual representation of the victory probability distribution for each fencer in their respective pools:

Each cell in a fencer's row corresponds to a specific number of victories, starting from the left with no victories and increasing to the right, indicating victories in all bouts.
The shading of each cell represents the probability of that particular victory outcome for the fencer. Darker shades indicate higher probabilities, suggesting that the outcome is more likely based on past performances. On the other hand, lighter shades point towards less probable outcomes.
The boxed number in a cell represents the actual number of victories the fencer achieved in the pool, making it easy to compare predicted probabilities with actual outcomes at a glance.
By examining the gradient from lighter to darker cells, you can get an intuitive sense of where a fencer's victories are more or less expected based on their historical performance.

This heatmap visualization offers an immediate understanding of each fencer's expected performance compared to their actual results.

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