The Durkan Rooster RYC/RJCC

Y-14 Men's Foil

Sunday, September 21, 2025 at 8:00 AM

Factory 220 - Passaic, NJ, USA

Probability density of pool victories

Birth Year

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Explore the pool victory probability density for each fencer, with their actual victories highlighted in a box. Learn more.

#	Name	Number of victories
#	Name	0	1	2	3	4	5	6
1	XIAN kevin	-	-	-	3%	26%	71%
2	KO Caleb	-	-	-	1%	10%	38%	51%
3	QIAN Zekai	-	1%	5%	23%	43%	28%
3	SAMUEL Lucas	-	1%	9%	32%	41%	17%
5	ZHAO Ryan	-	-	-	2%	13%	41%	43%
6	CHOI Hunter	-	3%	15%	35%	35%	12%
7	BAS Jonathan	-	3%	14%	30%	33%	17%	3%
8	ZHENG Austin	-	3%	16%	34%	32%	13%	2%
9	KIM Daniel	-	1%	6%	23%	38%	27%	5%
10	LIN Joshua	1%	9%	30%	36%	19%	5%	< 1%
11	KAYE Ben	-	1%	7%	25%	40%	24%	4%
12	ROPER Griffin	-	2%	12%	28%	34%	19%	4%
13	JAZWINSKI Ryan	-	-	1%	10%	29%	40%	20%
14	CAO Joshua	-	-	2%	13%	32%	37%	15%
15	GRIGORIEV Michael	-	-	4%	21%	44%	30%
16	GLICKSBERG Alexander	-	2%	14%	33%	35%	15%	2%
17	HU Michael	-	-	3%	17%	37%	34%	9%
18	ZHAI Alex	-	-	2%	11%	29%	38%	19%
19	SHEN Lucas	10%	36%	37%	15%	2%	-
20	XIA Vincent	1%	11%	35%	37%	15%	2%
21	GUGALA Frank	2%	13%	32%	34%	16%	3%
22	SONG Enoch	-	1%	10%	35%	45%	9%
23	DAVIDSON Henry	7%	30%	40%	20%	3%	-
24	REN Ryan	-	4%	19%	36%	30%	10%	1%
25	YANG Luca	-	3%	14%	30%	33%	17%	3%
26	SHAW eric	1%	8%	30%	39%	19%	3%
27	KIM Albert	15%	40%	33%	10%	1%	-
28	LEE Aeden	1%	7%	27%	38%	22%	5%	-
29	CHENG Karter	2%	12%	30%	33%	18%	5%	-
30	MORRIS Micah	25%	44%	25%	6%	-	-
31	ZHANG Ethan	-	2%	14%	33%	34%	15%	2%
32	LEVKOVICH Avery	8%	32%	37%	18%	4%	-	-
33	WU David	3%	17%	37%	31%	11%	2%	-
34	TARCHICHI Daniel	2%	13%	36%	38%	12%	1%
35	IM Andrew	12%	43%	33%	11%	2%	-	-
36	PARISH-MORRIS Jay	4%	21%	37%	27%	9%	1%	-
37	XU Jonathan	9%	41%	36%	12%	2%	-
38	CHEN Kevin	23%	42%	27%	7%	1%	-
39	KOO Jaeha	60%	34%	6%	-	-	-
40	RAJAT Rivaan	35%	41%	19%	4%	-	-	-
41	LEE Ryan	22%	43%	27%	7%	1%	-	-
42	BRADY David	7%	28%	36%	21%	7%	1%	-
43	MCCORMICK Chase	37%	42%	17%	3%	-	-	-
44	VAN DER HARTEN Lukas	52%	38%	9%	1%	-	-	-
45	SINGH Arihaan	1%	18%	41%	31%	8%	-
46	PRICE Ezra	26%	44%	24%	5%	1%	-	-

Explanation

The heatmap in this table provides a visual representation of the victory probability distribution for each fencer in their respective pools:

Each cell in a fencer's row corresponds to a specific number of victories, starting from the left with no victories and increasing to the right, indicating victories in all bouts.
The shading of each cell represents the probability of that particular victory outcome for the fencer. Darker shades indicate higher probabilities, suggesting that the outcome is more likely based on past performances. On the other hand, lighter shades point towards less probable outcomes.
The boxed number in a cell represents the actual number of victories the fencer achieved in the pool, making it easy to compare predicted probabilities with actual outcomes at a glance.
By examining the gradient from lighter to darker cells, you can get an intuitive sense of where a fencer's victories are more or less expected based on their historical performance.

This heatmap visualization offers an immediate understanding of each fencer's expected performance compared to their actual results.

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