The Great Pumpkin

Div II Mixed Foil

Saturday, September 27, 2025 at 3:15 PM

College Park Neighborhood Center - Orlando, FL, USA

Probability density of pool victories

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Explore the probability of achieving at least a certain number of victories in the pool for each fencer, with their actual victories highlighted in a box. Learn more.

# Name Number of victories
0 1 2 3 4
1 SIMMES Jackson 100% 100% 99% 90% 55%
2 CHENG Thomas 100% 100% 100% 90% 32%
3 MCGUIRE K. Osborn 100% 99% 89% 56% 16%
3 FERRONE Gianna 100% 90% 58% 22% 3%
5 STEPHENS Trenton 100% 97% 79% 37% 3%
6 LECLAIR Noah 100% 90% 56% 17% 2%
7 SATTERFIELD Rory 100% 73% 24% 3% -
8 MOLINA Carlos 100% 78% 35% 7% -
9 BURLACE Brenden 100% 93% 65% 24% 3%
10 SHEPP Brady 100% 77% 33% 6% -
11 VENZON Makena Jane 100% 100% 93% 58% 8%
12 ISAACSON Mary Beth 100% 94% 70% 31% 5%
13 GROSSE Michael 100% 99% 86% 50% 12%
14 PALM Kaitlyn 100% 91% 62% 24% 4%
15 RIZZOLO Chris 100% 78% 30% 4% -

Explanation

The heatmap in this table provides a visual representation of the victory probability distribution for each fencer in their respective pools:

This heatmap visualization offers an immediate understanding of each fencer's expected performance compared to their actual results.