Premier Challenge ROC/RJCC/RYC

Y-14 Men's Épée

Friday, September 26, 2025 at 8:00 AM

Rockland Community College, Eugene Levy Field House - Suffern, NY, USA

Probability density of pool victories

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Explore the probability of achieving at least a certain number of victories in the pool for each fencer, with their actual victories highlighted in a box. Learn more.

# Name Number of victories
0 1 2 3 4 5 6
1 KABA Elias 100% 100% 100% 100% 97% 81% 40%
2 MANSFIELD Hunter 100% 100% 100% 95% 73% 30%
3 ROSADO Balthazar Francisco 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 94% 62%
3 ROBINSON Blake 100% 84% 47% 15% 3% - -
5 ZHANG Marcus 100% 100% 100% 98% 87% 48%
6 TANG Luke 100% 100% 98% 85% 53% 17% 2%
7 BHANDARE Veer 100% 100% 96% 76% 37% 7%
8 NG Nico 100% 100% 100% 98% 85% 45%
9 CHEN Aiden 100% 100% 97% 82% 43% 9%
10 MASKIN Mikhail 100% 98% 84% 50% 16% 2%
11 ASHLEY Logan 100% 100% 100% 97% 82% 44% 7%
12 WANG Marcus 100% 100% 98% 86% 53% 16% 1%
13 TOPRANI Valmik 100% 98% 87% 55% 20% 3%
14 TOMPA Paul 100% 83% 42% 11% 1% -
15 LAU LUCAS 100% 100% 100% 95% 74% 32%
16 GUJJA Rishabh 100% 100% 96% 78% 41% 9%
17 CARPENTER Touma S. 100% 100% 100% 97% 80% 38%
18 CHALLAMEL Hadrien 100% 100% 96% 77% 39% 8%
19 YAKHNIS Seth 100% 100% 97% 80% 45% 10%
20 RUDIGER George 100% 95% 70% 30% 6% -
21 EFFRON Silas 100% 100% 98% 86% 49% 9%
22 NOOL Alexander 100% 100% 99% 94% 71% 28%
23 ZHENG Jasper 100% 99% 89% 59% 20% 2%
23 LOPATIN Sergei 100% 76% 35% 8% 1% -
25 THOMAS Andrew 100% 100% 97% 80% 43% 8%
26 KO Ethan 100% 99% 90% 61% 24% 4% -
27 CAVALLARO Sebastian 100% 87% 51% 16% 2% -
28 FRIZZELL Kai 100% 97% 80% 41% 10% 1%
29 DAI Jason 100% 96% 76% 39% 10% 1%
30 CIANCHETTA David 100% 73% 30% 6% 1% -
31 NOOL Aaron 100% 99% 89% 57% 21% 3% -
32 HOLBROOK Silas 100% 93% 66% 28% 5% -
33 FANG Charlie 100% 99% 91% 62% 24% 3%
34 MADRIGAL SALVAT Guillermo 100% 100% 95% 76% 39% 8%
35 O'BRIEN Michael 100% 76% 35% 9% 1% -
36 JIN Noah 100% 87% 51% 17% 3% - -
37 LEE Taeryum 100% 99% 84% 48% 14% 2% -
38 LIN John 100% 100% 98% 87% 59% 23% 3%
39 CARPENTER Taisei 100% 93% 59% 21% 4% - -
40 KESELMAN Ron 100% 77% 35% 8% 1% -
41 LEE Ryan 100% 60% 18% 3% - -
42 APFELBAUM Noam 100% 98% 84% 50% 16% 2%
43 ANDERSON Connor 100% 88% 53% 18% 3% -
44 CHEN Jayden A 100% 89% 52% 16% 2% -
45 BHATT Shivam 100% 42% 7% 1% - -
46 MATHEW Benjamin 100% 48% 10% 1% - - -
47 MERHEJ Sean 100% 99% 80% 30% 5% -
48 BARTON Christian 100% 84% 44% 12% 1% -
49 SORONDO Aidan 100% 99% 67% 22% 3% -
50 KWON Ryan 100% 99% 90% 61% 26% 5% -

Explanation

The heatmap in this table provides a visual representation of the victory probability distribution for each fencer in their respective pools:

This heatmap visualization offers an immediate understanding of each fencer's expected performance compared to their actual results.