13th Annual Little Musketeers RYC & RJC

Y-12 Women's Épée

Friday, October 10, 2025 at 2:00 PM

Jump Beyond Sports - Torrance, CA, USA

Probability density of pool victories

Birth Year

Reset

Explore the pool victory probability density for each fencer, with their actual victories highlighted in a box. Learn more.

#	Name	Number of victories
#	Name	0	1	2	3	4	5	6
1	YIP Allison	-	-	-	1%	9%	39%	51%
2	ZHAO Ellie	-	1%	8%	27%	41%	23%
3	LI Allison	-	-	2%	14%	35%	36%	12%
3	MIAO Anthea	-	1%	8%	28%	38%	21%	4%
5	LI Anna	-	-	1%	11%	41%	46%
6	ARNOLD Evangeline	-	-	2%	16%	43%	39%
7	VOO Evelyn	-	-	1%	10%	32%	43%	13%
8	DEJOY Leilah	-	5%	21%	38%	28%	7%
9	LU Chu	-	3%	26%	43%	24%	4%
10	CHONG Emma	1%	10%	31%	37%	18%	3%
11	LYNTON Alexandra	-	2%	18%	36%	31%	12%	2%
12	DEFENSOR Ella	-	3%	16%	36%	33%	10%	1%
13	WANG Kercedes Ye	4%	25%	42%	24%	5%	-
14	WONG Isabelle	1%	8%	26%	37%	23%	5%
15	SUN Joanna	-	-	5%	21%	42%	31%
16	RONG Hilary	-	5%	21%	37%	28%	7%
17	LICON Katherine	-	-	5%	23%	41%	28%	3%
18	LYNTON Olivia	-	5%	28%	51%	15%	1%
19	YANG Nina	-	1%	15%	39%	36%	9%
20	SHIH Eva	11%	36%	35%	15%	3%	-
21	WANG Phoebe	1%	8%	28%	38%	21%	4%
22	LEE Rebecca	-	3%	24%	43%	26%	5%
23	MUHLENBRUCH Cora	8%	32%	39%	19%	3%	-
24	WANG Olivia	1%	10%	29%	37%	20%	4%	-
25	KEDAN Carmella	9%	34%	37%	17%	3%	-	-
26	SU Hermione Su	3%	20%	37%	29%	10%	1%	-
27	SHIH Cayla	41%	47%	11%	1%	-	-	-
28	SCHWARTZMAN Avital	38%	42%	17%	3%	-	-
29	HUANG Sophie	-	6%	29%	40%	21%	4%
30	MA Sloane	12%	39%	34%	13%	2%	-
31	LA Evelyn	48%	45%	6%	-	-	-
32	FLESHER Mia	42%	42%	14%	2%	-	-
33	HSIEH Sophie	-	3%	16%	37%	34%	10%
34	WANG Elizabeth	42%	42%	14%	2%	-	-
35	HONG Erin	-	2%	13%	35%	37%	11%	1%
36	ROSENFELD Liv	36%	53%	10%	1%	-	-
37	ROBERTSON Sienna	22%	44%	27%	6%	1%	-	-
38	BAI lufei	34%	43%	20%	4%	-	-	-

Explanation

The heatmap in this table provides a visual representation of the victory probability distribution for each fencer in their respective pools:

Each cell in a fencer's row corresponds to a specific number of victories, starting from the left with no victories and increasing to the right, indicating victories in all bouts.
The shading of each cell represents the probability of that particular victory outcome for the fencer. Darker shades indicate higher probabilities, suggesting that the outcome is more likely based on past performances. On the other hand, lighter shades point towards less probable outcomes.
The boxed number in a cell represents the actual number of victories the fencer achieved in the pool, making it easy to compare predicted probabilities with actual outcomes at a glance.
By examining the gradient from lighter to darker cells, you can get an intuitive sense of where a fencer's victories are more or less expected based on their historical performance.

This heatmap visualization offers an immediate understanding of each fencer's expected performance compared to their actual results.

Want to keep up with all things fencingtracker? Join our Discord community here.