Duel of the East Coast ROC/RJCC/RYC

Y-14 Men's Foil

Sunday, October 12, 2025 at 8:00 AM

Greater Philadelphia Expo Center - Hall C - Oaks, PA, USA

Probability density of pool victories

Birth Year

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Explore the pool victory probability density for each fencer, with their actual victories highlighted in a box. Learn more.

#	Name	Number of victories
#	Name	0	1	2	3	4	5	6
1	KUO Phineas	-	-	-	2%	15%	42%	40%
2	WU Wallace	-	-	-	5%	42%	53%
3	SHOU Raymond	-	-	1%	13%	56%	31%
3	LEE Kyle	-	4%	20%	42%	29%	5%
5	LEONG Samuel	-	3%	16%	35%	34%	12%
6	OH Joshua	-	6%	26%	43%	25%
7	ULYSSE Jacob	-	4%	26%	43%	23%	4%
8	LEE Thomas	-	-	2%	17%	47%	34%
9	WANG Mendy	-	-	6%	33%	51%	10%
10	XIA Vincent	-	1%	12%	34%	36%	15%	2%
11	KAYE Ben	-	-	5%	24%	40%	26%	5%
12	WU Alexander	5%	26%	41%	24%	5%
13	SAMUEL Lucas	-	-	3%	21%	48%	28%
14	CAO Joshua	-	-	2%	13%	42%	43%
15	SHARMA Ari	-	4%	23%	45%	24%	4%
16	CONVERSO-PARSONS Alexander	2%	16%	40%	36%	6%	-
17	HUDSON Jedidiah	7%	31%	43%	17%	2%	-
18	LI Andrew	2%	12%	32%	34%	17%	3%
19	SHAW Eric	8%	32%	39%	18%	3%
20	HUANG Dalynn	-	4%	17%	35%	33%	11%
21	ZWILLING Declan	-	-	3%	16%	42%	39%
22	GLICKSBERG Alexander	-	6%	22%	37%	28%	7%
23	VENAFRO Tristan	1%	10%	33%	40%	16%
24	RAJAT Rivaan	12%	38%	37%	12%	1%	-
25	LIN John	-	1%	10%	35%	41%	12%
26	MILLER Julian	14%	39%	34%	11%	2%	-
27	CAO Aaron	-	8%	39%	39%	12%	1%
28	JABLOKOV Roman	-	-	3%	19%	39%	32%	7%
29	DEGRYSE Leopold	11%	36%	38%	14%	2%	-
30	ALABI Adriel	41%	42%	15%	2%	-
31	AIRAN-JAVIA Shiv	33%	44%	20%	3%	-	-
32	SNYDER Winston	9%	36%	40%	14%	1%	-
33	LEE Ryan	9%	36%	39%	14%	2%	-	-
34	PARISH-MORRIS Jay	12%	36%	35%	15%	3%	-
35	IM Andrew	31%	42%	21%	5%	1%	-
36	WILSON Henry	29%	45%	22%	4%	-	-
37	LEE Thomas	56%	37%	6%	-	-	-
38	YEUNG rex	33%	44%	20%	3%	-	-
39	MCCORMICK Chase	11%	37%	37%	13%	2%	-	-
40	PRICE Ezra	20%	47%	28%	4%	-	-
41	LEONG Michael	20%	52%	24%	4%	-	-
42	BHATTACHARYA Dhruv	39%	44%	15%	2%	-	-	-

Explanation

The heatmap in this table provides a visual representation of the victory probability distribution for each fencer in their respective pools:

Each cell in a fencer's row corresponds to a specific number of victories, starting from the left with no victories and increasing to the right, indicating victories in all bouts.
The shading of each cell represents the probability of that particular victory outcome for the fencer. Darker shades indicate higher probabilities, suggesting that the outcome is more likely based on past performances. On the other hand, lighter shades point towards less probable outcomes.
The boxed number in a cell represents the actual number of victories the fencer achieved in the pool, making it easy to compare predicted probabilities with actual outcomes at a glance.
By examining the gradient from lighter to darker cells, you can get an intuitive sense of where a fencer's victories are more or less expected based on their historical performance.

This heatmap visualization offers an immediate understanding of each fencer's expected performance compared to their actual results.

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