AFM Super Regional SYC/RJCC/ROC Div1A/Vet

Y-10 Men's Saber

Sunday, November 2, 2025 at 11:00 AM

Santa Clara Convention Center - Santa Clara, CA, USA

Probability density of pool victories

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Explore the pool victory probability density for each fencer, with their actual victories highlighted in a box. Learn more.

#	Name	Number of victories
#	Name	0	1	2	3	4	5	6
1	WANG Henrik	-	-	6%	35%	53%	7%
2	CHUNG Evan	4%	21%	36%	28%	9%	1%
3	TABANCAY Cole	-	-	-	4%	21%	45%	30%
3	LEE Hubert Junhu	-	-	2%	15%	42%	41%
5	QIAO Jason	1%	7%	24%	37%	25%	6%
6	CHEN Donovan	-	3%	16%	38%	34%	9%
7	ZHENG Matt	-	4%	18%	35%	32%	11%
8	LEE Caleb	3%	16%	33%	32%	14%	2%
9	GALANG Aiden	9%	31%	36%	19%	5%	-
10	NOWAKOWSKI Zachary	1%	8%	34%	41%	16%	-
11	JIAO Lawrence	-	3%	17%	38%	33%	9%
12	SEVERT David	8%	38%	38%	14%	2%	-
13	JIANG Hardy	4%	21%	39%	29%	7%	1%
14	YAN Kaysen	3%	17%	34%	31%	13%	2%
15	CHANG Jarrett	7%	31%	37%	19%	5%	-
16	ZHANG Kingstin	4%	25%	41%	24%	6%	-
17	LI Nathan	-	2%	13%	39%	38%	9%	-
18	YUNG Nathan	-	3%	21%	42%	28%	6%
19	CHEN Brian	12%	39%	36%	11%	1%	-	-
20	WU August	-	1%	5%	20%	41%	33%
21	HWANG Leo	-	-	1%	10%	40%	48%
22	LIN Rongcheng Noah	3%	17%	34%	31%	13%	2%
23	HORIKAWA Xander	3%	25%	42%	24%	6%	-
24	GUI Kyle	-	1%	10%	30%	36%	19%	3%
25	PICACHE Merrick	-	5%	22%	39%	27%	6%
26	KIM Dylan	13%	33%	34%	16%	4%	-
27	CHANG Allen	6%	24%	36%	25%	8%	1%
28	TAM Ethan	3%	22%	42%	26%	7%	1%
29	ARVIND Dhruv	-	-	1%	8%	34%	42%	16%
30	JIANG Harry	2%	14%	36%	35%	12%	1%
31	ZHANG Leon	-	6%	28%	39%	22%	4%
32	PAN Wesley	-	4%	17%	35%	33%	11%
33	GOURJI Roman	41%	42%	15%	2%	-	-
34	WU Jaren	1%	6%	20%	35%	29%	9%
35	JUNG Diego	55%	36%	8%	1%	-	-
36	LANG XIYUE	37%	42%	17%	3%	-	-
37	CHEN Jiayi	-	1%	8%	27%	41%	24%
38	RAMAKRISHNA Aditya	13%	37%	36%	13%	1%	-	-
39	SHIH Brandon	< 1%	3%	18%	42%	32%	6%
40	LAN Rory	13%	42%	34%	10%	1%	-
40	FERNANDEZ leo	65%	30%	5%	-	-	-
42	YANG Kaleb	22%	42%	27%	8%	1%	-	-
43	WOO Jonathan	2%	16%	35%	32%	13%	2%

Explanation

The heatmap in this table provides a visual representation of the victory probability distribution for each fencer in their respective pools:

Each cell in a fencer's row corresponds to a specific number of victories, starting from the left with no victories and increasing to the right, indicating victories in all bouts.
The shading of each cell represents the probability of that particular victory outcome for the fencer. Darker shades indicate higher probabilities, suggesting that the outcome is more likely based on past performances. On the other hand, lighter shades point towards less probable outcomes.
The boxed number in a cell represents the actual number of victories the fencer achieved in the pool, making it easy to compare predicted probabilities with actual outcomes at a glance.
By examining the gradient from lighter to darker cells, you can get an intuitive sense of where a fencer's victories are more or less expected based on their historical performance.

This heatmap visualization offers an immediate understanding of each fencer's expected performance compared to their actual results.

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