Nick Itkin Cup SYC

Y-14 Women's Épée

Friday, December 5, 2025 at 1:00 PM

Palm Springs Convention Center - Palm Springs, CA, USA

Probability density of pool victories

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Explore the pool victory probability density for each fencer, with their actual victories highlighted in a box. Learn more.

#	Name	Number of victories
#	Name	0	1	2	3	4	5	6
1	LI Anna	-	-	3%	20%	51%	25%
2	ZHAO Ellie	1%	10%	36%	45%	8%
3	VIJAY Vaishnavi	-	4%	17%	37%	32%	10%
3	MIAO Anthea	2%	14%	35%	36%	13%	1%
5	CHI Zoe	-	-	-	-	3%	24%	73%
6	HERNASA Anna	-	-	-	1%	19%	79%
7	GIERAT-KATZ Izabella	-	1%	9%	28%	40%	21%
8	KOU Cynthia	1%	15%	38%	33%	11%	1%
9	FU Shannon	-	-	2%	25%	73%
10	FISCHBEIN Quinley	-	-	1%	9%	43%	47%
11	LI Allison	-	2%	15%	42%	37%	4%
12	ARULKUMAR Lashia	-	-	3%	19%	44%	33%
13	ERISMAN Gabriella	-	1%	8%	30%	44%	16%
14	YIP Allison	-	1%	8%	30%	43%	17%
15	VINLUAN Emma	3%	19%	36%	29%	11%	2%	-
16	CIOBANU Celine	-	3%	16%	37%	34%	10%
17	LIAO irene	-	1%	9%	28%	41%	21%
18	LU Chloe	-	6%	27%	44%	22%	1%
19	MIXON Ivory	-	2%	11%	30%	37%	19%	2%
20	YU Chloe	-	4%	17%	36%	33%	10%
21	LI Carlie	2%	19%	37%	30%	10%	1%
22	XU Amy(Chenyu)	-	-	2%	13%	42%	43%
23	DEJOY Leilah	4%	23%	41%	26%	6%	-
24	THOMAS Mackenzie	3%	27%	43%	23%	3%	-
25	HUANG Jui-An	1%	11%	29%	35%	19%	4%	-
26	FLYNN Kensington	-	4%	17%	34%	32%	12%	1%
27	VOO Evelyn	2%	17%	41%	33%	7%	-
29	SUN Joanna	1%	7%	27%	40%	21%	3%
30	PARKE Jaime	18%	39%	31%	11%	2%	-
31	WANG Kercedes Ye	6%	31%	42%	19%	3%	-
32	KOHLER Chrissy	13%	36%	34%	14%	2%	-
33	KUSHNERENKO Maiia	19%	41%	30%	9%	1%	-
34	DEKERMANJI kate	9%	31%	37%	18%	4%	-
35	YANG Nina	8%	33%	43%	15%	1%
36	DEFENSOR Ella	8%	36%	39%	14%	2%	-
37	YOON Claire	3%	25%	43%	24%	4%	-
38	ZHU Anna	13%	37%	35%	13%	2%	-
39	HUANG Sophie	23%	46%	26%	5%	-
40	VISHWA Nishta	33%	44%	19%	4%	-	-
41	TRUONG Chloe	29%	46%	22%	3%	-
42	BACK Ella	2%	14%	35%	34%	13%	2%
43	STEPHAN Antje Elisa	16%	41%	32%	10%	1%	-
44	CHONG Emma	9%	32%	38%	18%	3%	-
45	PAK Ella	3%	16%	34%	31%	13%	2%	-
47	LEE Layla	49%	39%	11%	1%	-	-
48	FLESHER Mia	39%	41%	17%	3%	-	-	-
49	BEATINGO Chelli	42%	43%	13%	2%	-	-
50	KANE Sloan	65%	30%	5%	-	-	-

Explanation

The heatmap in this table provides a visual representation of the victory probability distribution for each fencer in their respective pools:

Each cell in a fencer's row corresponds to a specific number of victories, starting from the left with no victories and increasing to the right, indicating victories in all bouts.
The shading of each cell represents the probability of that particular victory outcome for the fencer. Darker shades indicate higher probabilities, suggesting that the outcome is more likely based on past performances. On the other hand, lighter shades point towards less probable outcomes.
The boxed number in a cell represents the actual number of victories the fencer achieved in the pool, making it easy to compare predicted probabilities with actual outcomes at a glance.
By examining the gradient from lighter to darker cells, you can get an intuitive sense of where a fencer's victories are more or less expected based on their historical performance.

This heatmap visualization offers an immediate understanding of each fencer's expected performance compared to their actual results.

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