Fairfax Challenge SYC/RJCC

Y-12 Women's Épée

Sunday, December 28, 2025 at 8:00 AM

Fredericksburg Convention Center - Fredericksburg, VA, USA

Probability density of pool victories

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Explore the probability of achieving at least a certain number of victories in the pool for each fencer, with their actual victories highlighted in a box. Learn more.

# Name Number of victories
0 1 2 3 4 5 6
1 ZHANG Ashley 100% 100% 99% 87% 46%
3 YU Chloe 100% 100% 100% 100% 96% 81% 40%
3 CHEN Madeline 100% 100% 100% 100% 95% 74% 31%
5 YANG Hannah 100% 100% 100% 100% 99% 89% 52%
6 FAN Joy 100% 100% 99% 93% 70% 27%
7 XIE ANDREA 100% 100% 99% 93% 69% 27%
8 WANG Hailie 100% 100% 95% 79% 47% 16% 2%
9 CHANG Hannah 100% 99% 86% 49% 10%
10 KIM Kate 100% 99% 90% 62% 24% 4%
11 HAN Emma 100% 100% 100% 95% 74% 31%
12 VILLER Alice 100% 100% 99% 92% 64% 23%
13 RAJ Indra 100% 100% 97% 81% 46% 11%
14 LEE Zoe 100% 99% 91% 65% 30% 6% -
15 HE Joyce 100% 91% 59% 23% 4% -
16 MAO Faith 100% 94% 69% 33% 9% 1% -
17 CHOI Arianna 100% 100% 100% 100% 96% 77% 35%
18 YOUNG Penelope 100% 99% 93% 70% 30% 5%
19 FURMAN Elizabeth 100% 100% 100% 96% 80% 44% 9%
20 MEGGERS Arya 100% 100% 98% 87% 57% 21% 3%
21 LIU Brinley 100% 100% 99% 91% 66% 29% 5%
22 XU Yunshu 100% 99% 90% 61% 25% 5% -
23 LEONG Andrea 100% 100% 92% 66% 27% 5%
24 YUSHCHENKO Ivanka 100% 99% 85% 50% 16% 2%
25 FAYEZ Malika 100% 100% 98% 86% 53% 15%
26 ZHAO Rachel 100% 97% 81% 47% 15% 2%
27 CHALLAMEL Heloise 100% 98% 83% 50% 18% 3% -
28 HONG Catherine 100% 100% 98% 88% 58% 22% 3%
29 QIN Olivia 100% 95% 62% 23% 4% - -
30 CHANEY Evelyn 100% 100% 98% 86% 53% 14%
31 TRIVULCE Scarlett 100% 100% 95% 75% 39% 11% 1%
32 CHOI Noah 100% 98% 85% 54% 21% 4% -
33 KUO Stella 100% 98% 85% 56% 23% 5% -
34 CHUNG Yenna 100% 99% 91% 68% 35% 9% 1%
35 TANG Jacquelyn 100% 99% 93% 72% 39% 12% 1%
36 ZHAO Crystal 100% 99% 91% 63% 27% 6% -
37 JUBILEE Beata 100% 100% 100% 97% 82% 46% 11%
38 ABDELKAREM Maya 100% 100% 92% 64% 27% 6% -
39 YIN Elaine 100% 100% 97% 84% 50% 13%
40 BUNCH Helena 100% 91% 57% 19% 3% -
41 LEWIN Isabelle 100% 90% 51% 14% 1%
42 ERATA Selena 100% 93% 65% 27% 6% -
43 KWON Allison 100% 94% 61% 22% 4% -
44 CHAN Faith Sum Yin 100% 94% 67% 27% 5% -
45 KIM Lina 100% 76% 35% 8% 1% -
46 AINSWORTH Esme 100% 97% 75% 32% 5%
47 ZUNIGA Sol Alejandra Flores 100% 95% 74% 41% 13% 2% -
48 CHEN Emily 100% 95% 62% 23% 5% - -
49 XU Alivia 100% 97% 79% 45% 14% 2%
50 WANG Jenny wang 100% 76% 35% 9% 1% - -
51 ABDALLAH Lily 100% 78% 39% 12% 2% - -
52 JANG Daniella 100% 75% 34% 8% 1% -
53 VILLER Gabriella 100% 91% 60% 23% 4% -
54 ZHANG Ann 100% 35% 5% - - - -
55 WANG Bojun 100% 63% 20% 3% - -
56 LEE Zerah 100% 49% 10% 1% -
57 GUO Cecilia 100% 34% 5% - - - -
58 CHOI Serine 100% 41% 7% 1% - -

Explanation

The heatmap in this table provides a visual representation of the victory probability distribution for each fencer in their respective pools:

This heatmap visualization offers an immediate understanding of each fencer's expected performance compared to their actual results.