Fairfax Challenge ROC, RJCC, RYC

Y-14 Men's Épée

Friday, January 2, 2026 at 8:00 AM

Fredericksburg Convention Center - Fredericksburg, VA, USA

Probability density of pool victories

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Explore the pool victory probability density for each fencer, with their actual victories highlighted in a box. Learn more.

# Name Number of victories
0 1 2 3 4 5 6
1 ADDYSON Aidan - - - 1% 10% 37% 52%
2 ZHANG Kwan Fei(Albert) - - - - 5% 33% 62%
3 KIM Gene - - - 1% 7% 34% 59%
3 LOPATIN Sergei 1% 9% 28% 37% 21% 4%
5 TOWNSHEND Connor - - - 2% 13% 39% 45%
6 BORAN Brooks - 3% 15% 37% 35% 9% 1%
7 CASH William Li - 5% 19% 36% 30% 9%
8 PARY Jean Pierre 2% 14% 32% 33% 16% 3%
9 KROPP Wesley - - - 4% 17% 41% 37%
10 CHAN Ian - 1% 7% 24% 39% 25% 4%
11 KUBBA Sauvil 7% 27% 38% 22% 5% -
12 WANG Eason - 2% 10% 28% 39% 21%
13 YU Jeremy - 1% 10% 29% 39% 20%
14 FEELY Benjamin - - 1% 9% 31% 46% 13%
15 ZHUKOV Egor 1% 8% 27% 37% 23% 5%
16 HUDSON Declan 1% 7% 23% 36% 26% 8% 1%
17 BANG Dylan 2% 17% 37% 33% 10%
18 GUO Benjamin - 4% 15% 32% 32% 15% 2%
19 STRAFFORD Andrew - 1% 7% 28% 44% 20%
20 YAO Ryan - 1% 5% 22% 44% 28%
21 WEI Jayden - 5% 21% 38% 28% 6% -
22 GATEWOOD Michael - 1% 7% 21% 36% 28% 7%
23 CHOI Joshua 18% 40% 31% 10% 1% - -
24 URIA Sullivan 2% 13% 34% 37% 14%
25 ZHAO Brandon 35% 42% 19% 4% -
26 KUYKENDALL Logan 3% 16% 32% 30% 15% 3% -
27 CHONG Eden 10% 34% 37% 16% 3% - -
28 SAAD Peter 11% 32% 35% 18% 4% -
29 CHUNG Daehyun Daniel 1% 7% 25% 37% 25% 6%
30 SCOTTODIMARCO James 6% 27% 38% 23% 6% 1%
31 YAO Aiden - 3% 13% 30% 34% 17% 3%
32 SCORDINSKY Liam 1% 12% 34% 38% 15%
33 KIM Daniel - 1% 8% 26% 38% 23% 4%
34 GALIOTE James 2% 13% 29% 32% 18% 5% -
35 KUYKENDALL Lucas 13% 34% 33% 16% 4% - -
36 KIM Siwoo 7% 24% 35% 24% 9% 1% -
37 KIM Aiden 1% 7% 22% 34% 26% 9% 1%
38 SMOTHERS Eli 18% 38% 30% 11% 2% -
39 SHAO Mason 4% 21% 37% 28% 9% 1%
40 QI Bryan 8% 33% 38% 18% 3%
41 REYNOLDS CHANG Luke 3% 19% 36% 30% 11% 2% -
42 WANG Henry 20% 41% 29% 9% 1% - -
43 FEELY Samuel 2% 14% 33% 34% 15% 3% -
44 WANG William 3% 19% 37% 29% 10% 2% -
45 MAXWELL Taiga 3% 17% 33% 30% 13% 3% -
46 SHULL Matthias 13% 35% 35% 15% 3% - -
47 CHIU Preston - 2% 11% 28% 35% 20% 3%
49 KELLY Blair 3% 16% 33% 32% 14% 2%
50 CARL-YODER Matthew 8% 28% 37% 21% 5% -
51 MILLER Xavier 1% 11% 32% 37% 17% 2% -
52 HAVARUSHKA Bahdan 3% 16% 31% 31% 15% 4% -
53 FENG Xinmin 7% 24% 35% 25% 9% 1% -
54 QU ethan 46% 39% 13% 2% - -
55 SERGEANT Henry 21% 41% 29% 8% 1% -
56 MORET Declan 51% 37% 10% 1% - - -
57 SMITH Noah 15% 36% 32% 14% 3% - -
58 HEALY Caden 1% 16% 37% 32% 12% 2% -
59 ATTALLA Taha 5% 23% 36% 26% 9% 1% -

Explanation

The heatmap in this table provides a visual representation of the victory probability distribution for each fencer in their respective pools:

This heatmap visualization offers an immediate understanding of each fencer's expected performance compared to their actual results.