2026 TCFC January Challenges

Senior Mixed Épée

Sunday, January 4, 2026 at 2:00 PM

Twin Cities Fencing Club - St. Paul, MN, USA

Probability density of pool victories

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Explore the pool victory probability density for each fencer, with their actual victories highlighted in a box. Learn more.

#	Name	Number of victories
#	Name	0	1	2	3	4	5	6
1	TOLLEFSON Zachary	-	-	-	2%	15%	45%	39%
2	LIMER Avi	-	-	2%	18%	45%	34%
3	ROWLAND Marsden	-	-	2%	17%	50%	31%
3	BLAT Robert	-	-	1%	13%	48%	38%
5	SIEDOW William	-	-	1%	7%	35%	57%
6	HONEK Kyle	-	4%	18%	36%	31%	10%	1%
7	BISSEN Quinn	-	-	1%	11%	50%	38%
8	BUCUR Rebekah O.	-	-	2%	13%	34%	37%	13%
9	PREIDL Matthias	-	1%	9%	33%	45%	12%
10	TAKATA Benjamin	-	-	1%	12%	46%	40%
10	SANFORD Wesley	2%	16%	40%	34%	8%	1%
10	PETERSON Penelope	2%	15%	35%	33%	14%	2%
13	HALULA Frank	6%	26%	40%	24%	4%	-
14	LEE Wilson	17%	41%	32%	9%	1%	-
15	DRAWZ Chase	1%	10%	28%	35%	20%	5%	-
16	TELCI Arya	11%	36%	37%	14%	2%	-
17	CLIPPARD Erik J.	7%	31%	38%	19%	4%	-
18	CAVEN Henry	17%	41%	32%	10%	1%	-
19	ELDRIDGE Hudson	6%	28%	38%	22%	5%	-	-
20	LEUNG Matthias	5%	27%	42%	22%	4%	-
21	STENZEL Henry	13%	38%	36%	12%	1%	-
22	YATES Graeme	1%	15%	38%	35%	10%	1%
23	CARLSON Harvey	2%	14%	31%	33%	17%	3%
24	CULVER Hannah	5%	26%	43%	24%	2%	-
25	MIEST Davis	2%	16%	40%	33%	9%	-
26	JORGENSEN Kjirsten	6%	27%	42%	22%	3%	-
27	CAVEN Emerald	38%	43%	17%	2%	-	-
28	WILLER Ryan	15%	40%	32%	11%	2%	-	-
29	JORGENSEN Rebekah	29%	46%	22%	3%	-	-
30	STONE Ken	9%	32%	39%	18%	2%	-
31	HALLORAN Mikael	7%	28%	37%	21%	6%	1%	-

Explanation

The heatmap in this table provides a visual representation of the victory probability distribution for each fencer in their respective pools:

Each cell in a fencer's row corresponds to a specific number of victories, starting from the left with no victories and increasing to the right, indicating victories in all bouts.
The shading of each cell represents the probability of that particular victory outcome for the fencer. Darker shades indicate higher probabilities, suggesting that the outcome is more likely based on past performances. On the other hand, lighter shades point towards less probable outcomes.
The boxed number in a cell represents the actual number of victories the fencer achieved in the pool, making it easy to compare predicted probabilities with actual outcomes at a glance.
By examining the gradient from lighter to darker cells, you can get an intuitive sense of where a fencer's victories are more or less expected based on their historical performance.

This heatmap visualization offers an immediate understanding of each fencer's expected performance compared to their actual results.

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