Premier Challenge RYC/RJCC

Junior Women's Épée

Sunday, September 8, 2019 at 8:00 AM

Manalapan, NJ - Manalapan, NJ, USA

Probability density of pool victories

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Explore the pool victory probability density for each fencer, with their actual victories highlighted in a box. Learn more.

#	Name	Number of victories
#	Name	0	1	2	3	4	5	6
1	PATURU Meghana	-	-	-	7%	36%	56%
2	DROVETSKY Alexandra M.	-	-	-	3%	16%	42%	38%
3	TOLBA Salma	-	1%	8%	33%	45%	13%
3	NI Emma	-	1%	10%	31%	40%	17%
5	BELSLEY Devon K.	-	3%	16%	37%	35%	10%
6	KULKARNI Diya	-	-	2%	16%	44%	38%
7	MAO Amy	5%	23%	37%	26%	8%	1%
8	GAO Judy	-	8%	29%	39%	20%	4%
9	GU Sarah	-	-	9%	34%	42%	15%
10	ZHANG Tina	-	1%	8%	27%	42%	22%
11	PAN Michelle	-	5%	19%	36%	29%	10%	1%
12	LEE Olive	-	4%	17%	36%	33%	10%
13	LU Junyao	-	1%	7%	25%	42%	26%
14	KOKES Ava	-	5%	27%	42%	23%	4%
15	GOLDBERG Sophie C.	2%	14%	35%	34%	13%	2%
16	EBRAHIM Ameera H.	-	4%	31%	43%	19%	3%
17	LIN Katie Y.	-	-	2%	15%	41%	41%
18	DE JAGER Celine	1%	8%	25%	38%	24%	5%
19	ZAKHAROV Anne E.	5%	27%	43%	21%	3%	-
20	KOWALSKY Rachel A.	-	-	2%	13%	34%	38%	13%
21	HONG Elaine	4%	20%	37%	28%	10%	1%	-
22	COBERT Helen G.	-	3%	16%	35%	34%	11%
23	BIGGS Amelia F.	2%	22%	40%	27%	8%	1%
24	CHAN Elizabeth	-	1%	7%	25%	42%	25%
25	PARTE Isabella B.	-	5%	25%	45%	23%	3%
26	NICOU Nicole	10%	35%	36%	15%	3%	-
27	XU Jessica	32%	42%	21%	5%	-	-
28	MING Cynthia	6%	27%	38%	22%	6%	1%
29	SLACKMAN Valerie	2%	12%	31%	35%	17%	3%
30	LIN Julia L.	-	5%	20%	36%	28%	9%	1%
31	BRANDWEIN Elizabeth	33%	45%	19%	3%	-	-
32	LI AnnieSiliang	1%	18%	39%	31%	10%	1%
33	ZENG Katrina	19%	39%	30%	11%	2%	-
34	CHANG Ella	11%	33%	35%	17%	4%	-
35	GUZZI Jordan	21%	47%	26%	5%	-	-
36	SINGH Aayushi	73%	24%	3%	-	-	-
37	LONGSTREET Olivia	75%	23%	1%	-	-	-
37	HARJANI Meher	39%	42%	16%	3%	-	-
39	XU Amy	2%	13%	35%	35%	14%	2%
40	LI Alisha	15%	38%	32%	13%	2%	-	-
41	PATEL Viha	14%	61%	23%	3%	-	-
42	BONAR Natalia	22%	41%	27%	8%	1%	-	-
43	SHI Angela L.	6%	26%	38%	24%	6%	1%

Explanation

The heatmap in this table provides a visual representation of the victory probability distribution for each fencer in their respective pools:

Each cell in a fencer's row corresponds to a specific number of victories, starting from the left with no victories and increasing to the right, indicating victories in all bouts.
The shading of each cell represents the probability of that particular victory outcome for the fencer. Darker shades indicate higher probabilities, suggesting that the outcome is more likely based on past performances. On the other hand, lighter shades point towards less probable outcomes.
The boxed number in a cell represents the actual number of victories the fencer achieved in the pool, making it easy to compare predicted probabilities with actual outcomes at a glance.
By examining the gradient from lighter to darker cells, you can get an intuitive sense of where a fencer's victories are more or less expected based on their historical performance.

This heatmap visualization offers an immediate understanding of each fencer's expected performance compared to their actual results.

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