Mary Rafanelli RYC/RJCC

Y-10 Men's Épée

Saturday, January 17, 2026 at 2:00 PM

Pasadena Convention Center - Pasadena, CA, USA

Probability density of pool victories

Birth Year

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Explore the pool victory probability density for each fencer, with their actual victories highlighted in a box. Learn more.

#	Name	Number of victories
#	Name	0	1	2	3	4	5	6
1	LI John	-	4%	19%	36%	31%	10%
2	DING Daniel	-	3%	15%	34%	35%	13%
3	HONG Eason	-	-	3%	18%	43%	36%
3	FU Benjamin	-	-	1%	9%	37%	53%
5	LIU Yihong	-	-	-	1%	7%	33%	59%
6	WANG Alexander	5%	31%	40%	20%	4%	-
7	LAU Jesse	-	3%	20%	43%	31%	3%
8	LI Ethan	1%	7%	26%	39%	23%	4%
9	JIN JETFAN	-	-	-	2%	20%	78%
10	LEE Daniel	1%	11%	30%	36%	18%	3%
11	PINCHUK Spencer	-	-	5%	24%	44%	27%
12	LU Jayden	10%	34%	36%	17%	3%	-
13	ERLIKHMAN Emanuel	-	5%	24%	44%	25%	2%
14	DODDAPANENI Arjun	-	1%	9%	26%	38%	23%	3%
15	CHO Lincoln	-	2%	14%	36%	37%	11%
16	BUSH Andrew	-	6%	22%	36%	27%	8%
17	KIM Ian	6%	28%	40%	21%	4%	< 1%
18	LEE Zeo	21%	41%	28%	9%	1%	< 1%	-
19	YIM Benjamin	-	1%	9%	31%	41%	18%
20	DUCOURNAU Enzo	1%	6%	22%	35%	27%	8%	1%
21	MAH Caffrey	-	2%	14%	36%	37%	11%
22	DAI Greyson	33%	42%	20%	4%	-	-
23	HWANG Isaac	4%	23%	39%	26%	7%	1%
24	TOUPET Luke	-	6%	25%	40%	25%	4%
25	SHIH Terry	1%	6%	25%	39%	25%	5%
26	SHI Ethan	3%	21%	37%	28%	10%	1%
27	SHIH Eli	45%	39%	14%	2%	-	-
28	WAN William	4%	24%	42%	25%	5%	-
29	NI Liam	1%	9%	31%	39%	18%	2%
30	CHEN Andrew	-	3%	15%	34%	33%	13%	1%
31	YANG Mikey	1%	12%	34%	36%	15%	2%
32	XUE Jason	3%	19%	36%	30%	11%	1%
33	CHIANG WESLEY	16%	39%	32%	11%	2%	-
34	ZHANG Lucas	1%	11%	30%	35%	18%	3%
35	CAMPBELL Briggs	13%	36%	35%	14%	2%	-
36	OSIKA Wyatt	23%	44%	26%	6%	-	-
37	HUO Yichen	3%	18%	35%	30%	11%	2%	-
38	HAN Kyle	29%	45%	21%	4%	-	-
39	JANKO Miles	59%	33%	7%	1%	-	-
39	YU Anson	29%	46%	21%	4%	-	-
41	YAN Roman	< 1%	2%	11%	31%	38%	18%
42	LEE Jayden	28%	44%	23%	5%	-	-
43	WATKINS Max	14%	36%	33%	14%	3%	-	-

Explanation

The heatmap in this table provides a visual representation of the victory probability distribution for each fencer in their respective pools:

Each cell in a fencer's row corresponds to a specific number of victories, starting from the left with no victories and increasing to the right, indicating victories in all bouts.
The shading of each cell represents the probability of that particular victory outcome for the fencer. Darker shades indicate higher probabilities, suggesting that the outcome is more likely based on past performances. On the other hand, lighter shades point towards less probable outcomes.
The boxed number in a cell represents the actual number of victories the fencer achieved in the pool, making it easy to compare predicted probabilities with actual outcomes at a glance.
By examining the gradient from lighter to darker cells, you can get an intuitive sense of where a fencer's victories are more or less expected based on their historical performance.

This heatmap visualization offers an immediate understanding of each fencer's expected performance compared to their actual results.

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