Mary Rafanelli RYC/RJCC

Y-12 Women's Saber

Sunday, January 18, 2026 at 4:00 PM

Pasadena Convention Center - Pasadena, CA, USA

Probability density of pool victories

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Explore the pool victory probability density for each fencer, with their actual victories highlighted in a box. Learn more.

#	Name	Number of victories
#	Name	0	1	2	3	4	5	6
1	HWANG Sophie	-	-	-	-	5%	32%	62%
2	CAO Kim	-	-	-	2%	12%	39%	48%
3	CHEN Cindy	-	-	1%	10%	38%	52%
3	SUTHERLAND Sadie	-	2%	12%	29%	35%	19%	3%
5	SHI Maxine	-	-	2%	21%	76%
6	BAEK Aileen	-	1%	6%	21%	38%	29%	6%
7	TAN Angela	1%	8%	28%	40%	21%	3%
8	BRIMMER Bella	-	2%	13%	34%	37%	14%
9	RUSMEVICHIENTONG Lyla	-	-	-	2%	14%	40%	43%
10	GUO YUKI	-	1%	7%	24%	38%	26%	5%
11	WANG April	-	3%	15%	38%	36%	8%
12	GUERVILLE Angelique	-	-	1%	12%	42%	38%	7%
13	DUDNICK Caitlin	-	1%	9%	30%	40%	19%
14	WANG Makayla	-	-	2%	14%	42%	36%	6%
15	KIM Hyunji	2%	16%	34%	32%	14%	3%	-
16	TRAN Esme	1%	11%	34%	36%	16%	2%
17	FISCHER Luna	1%	7%	26%	37%	23%	6%	< 1%
18	CHANG Kora	-	1%	6%	23%	38%	26%	5%
19	CUI Andrea	1%	9%	27%	36%	21%	5%	-
20	WU Melody	6%	27%	42%	24%	2%
21	LUC Christabel	-	6%	24%	38%	26%	6%
22	ZHOU kelsey	16%	40%	33%	10%	-
23	ASHIKHMINA Agniya	-	1%	7%	25%	38%	24%	4%
24	CHENG Anna	-	-	-	2%	14%	40%	43%
25	CERVERA Zoe	2%	14%	32%	32%	16%	3%	-
26	RO Manhattan	26%	43%	25%	6%	1%	-
28	ZHAO Audrey	10%	39%	36%	13%	2%	-
29	HAN yujie	3%	22%	38%	27%	9%	1%	-
29	WONG Chloe	11%	35%	37%	15%	3%	-
31	WHITE CAREY Alberta	7%	26%	36%	23%	7%	1%	-
32	LEHER Evelyn	12%	37%	35%	14%	2%	-	-
33	LAVELLE Ariel	12%	34%	35%	16%	3%	-	-
34	YANG annie	5%	23%	40%	27%	5%	-	-
35	CHEN Emma	32%	42%	21%	5%	1%	-	-
36	SU Stacy	15%	35%	32%	14%	3%	-	-
37	WANG Jennifer	19%	42%	30%	8%	-
38	SCHOELLHAMMER Julia	8%	32%	40%	18%	1%
39	CHAN Clara Minna	-	3%	15%	33%	34%	14%	2%
40	CHANG Jillian	6%	25%	36%	24%	8%	1%	-
41	LIU Kaylee	10%	34%	38%	16%	3%	-
42	KOH Madison	11%	34%	37%	16%	2%	-	-
44	SHANG Bianca	51%	38%	10%	1%	-	-
45	GOSAVI Amiya	16%	40%	34%	10%	1%	-	-
46	BERO Mia	< 1%	11%	46%	34%	8%	1%	-
47	HONG Emory	55%	35%	8%	1%	-	-	-

Explanation

The heatmap in this table provides a visual representation of the victory probability distribution for each fencer in their respective pools:

Each cell in a fencer's row corresponds to a specific number of victories, starting from the left with no victories and increasing to the right, indicating victories in all bouts.
The shading of each cell represents the probability of that particular victory outcome for the fencer. Darker shades indicate higher probabilities, suggesting that the outcome is more likely based on past performances. On the other hand, lighter shades point towards less probable outcomes.
The boxed number in a cell represents the actual number of victories the fencer achieved in the pool, making it easy to compare predicted probabilities with actual outcomes at a glance.
By examining the gradient from lighter to darker cells, you can get an intuitive sense of where a fencer's victories are more or less expected based on their historical performance.

This heatmap visualization offers an immediate understanding of each fencer's expected performance compared to their actual results.

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