Mary Rafanelli RYC/RJCC

Y-12 Women's Saber

Sunday, January 18, 2026 at 4:00 PM

Pasadena Convention Center - Pasadena, CA, USA

Probability density of pool victories

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Explore the probability of achieving at least a certain number of victories in the pool for each fencer, with their actual victories highlighted in a box. Learn more.

# Name Number of victories
0 1 2 3 4 5 6
1 HWANG Sophie 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 95% 62%
2 CAO Kim 100% 100% 100% 100% 98% 86% 48%
3 CHEN Cindy 100% 100% 100% 99% 89% 52%
3 SUTHERLAND Sadie 100% 100% 98% 86% 57% 22% 3%
5 SHI Maxine 100% 100% 100% 98% 76%
6 BAEK Aileen 100% 100% 99% 94% 73% 35% 6%
7 TAN Angela 100% 99% 91% 64% 24% 3%
8 BRIMMER Bella 100% 100% 98% 85% 51% 14%
9 RUSMEVICHIENTONG Lyla 100% 100% 100% 100% 98% 84% 43%
10 GUO YUKI 100% 100% 99% 92% 68% 31% 5%
11 WANG April 100% 100% 97% 82% 44% 8%
12 GUERVILLE Angelique 100% 100% 100% 98% 86% 45% 7%
13 DUDNICK Caitlin 100% 100% 99% 89% 60% 19%
14 WANG Makayla 100% 100% 100% 98% 84% 43% 6%
15 KIM Hyunji 100% 98% 82% 48% 16% 3% -
16 TRAN Esme 100% 99% 88% 54% 18% 2%
17 FISCHER Luna 100% 99% 92% 66% 29% 6% < 1%
18 CHANG Kora 100% 100% 99% 93% 70% 32% 5%
19 CUI Andrea 100% 99% 90% 63% 27% 6% -
20 WU Melody 100% 94% 68% 26% 2%
21 LUC Christabel 100% 100% 94% 70% 32% 6%
22 ZHOU kelsey 100% 84% 44% 10% -
23 ASHIKHMINA Agniya 100% 100% 99% 92% 67% 29% 4%
24 CHENG Anna 100% 100% 100% 100% 97% 83% 43%
25 CERVERA Zoe 100% 98% 83% 51% 19% 4% -
26 RO Manhattan 100% 74% 31% 7% 1% -
28 ZHAO Audrey 100% 90% 51% 15% 2% -
29 HAN yujie 100% 97% 75% 37% 10% 1% -
29 WONG Chloe 100% 89% 55% 18% 3% -
31 WHITE CAREY Alberta 100% 93% 67% 31% 8% 1% -
32 LEHER Evelyn 100% 88% 51% 16% 2% - -
33 LAVELLE Ariel 100% 88% 54% 19% 3% - -
34 YANG annie 100% 95% 72% 32% 6% - -
35 CHEN Emma 100% 68% 26% 6% 1% - -
36 SU Stacy 100% 85% 50% 18% 3% - -
37 WANG Jennifer 100% 81% 38% 8% -
38 SCHOELLHAMMER Julia 100% 92% 59% 19% 1%
39 CHAN Clara Minna 100% 100% 97% 82% 49% 15% 2%
40 CHANG Jillian 100% 94% 69% 33% 9% 1% -
41 LIU Kaylee 100% 90% 57% 19% 3% -
42 KOH Madison 100% 89% 55% 18% 2% - -
44 SHANG Bianca 100% 49% 11% 1% - -
45 GOSAVI Amiya 100% 84% 45% 11% 1% - -
46 BERO Mia 100% 100% 89% 43% 9% 1% -
47 HONG Emory 100% 45% 9% 1% - - -

Explanation

The heatmap in this table provides a visual representation of the victory probability distribution for each fencer in their respective pools:

This heatmap visualization offers an immediate understanding of each fencer's expected performance compared to their actual results.