Mary Rafanelli RYC/RJCC

Y-12 Men's Épée

Monday, January 19, 2026 at 2:00 PM

Pasadena Convention Center - Pasadena, CA, USA

Probability density of pool victories

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Explore the pool victory probability density for each fencer, with their actual victories highlighted in a box. Learn more.

# Name Number of victories
0 1 2 3 4 5 6
1 DU Evan - - - - 1% 15% 85%
2 WU Nathan - - - 1% 12% 48% 39%
3 LEE Lucas - - 1% 6% 32% 61%
3 YUN Mason 1% 8% 22% 32% 25% 10% 2%
5 LIN Bryan - 1% 5% 17% 32% 32% 13%
6 HWANG Matthew - - - - 3% 24% 73%
7 PINCHUK Spencer 1% 5% 17% 31% 30% 15% 3%
8 TIAN Dylan - 2% 12% 32% 38% 16%
9 YOON Ian - 2% 12% 31% 35% 17% 3%
10 PARK Sean 1% 10% 29% 36% 20% 4%
11 SUN Jiarui (Jerry) - - 1% 7% 26% 42% 23%
12 LIU Aiden 1% 7% 24% 39% 26% 4%
13 HUA Nolan - 1% 4% 16% 32% 33% 14%
14 LIU William 4% 21% 37% 29% 9% 1%
15 JUNG Brandon 2% 13% 35% 35% 13% 2% -
16 FU Benjamin - - 3% 14% 34% 36% 13%
17 WONG Kyle - - - 3% 15% 40% 43%
18 YIM Antonio - - 4% 20% 42% 31% 3%
19 LI Connor - 1% 8% 27% 42% 20% 2%
20 ZHAO Luke - 2% 10% 27% 35% 21% 4%
21 LIU Yihong - 1% 7% 22% 36% 27% 8%
22 SHIH Derek - 3% 14% 33% 36% 15%
23 DING Daniel - 4% 16% 33% 32% 13% 2%
24 GUO Jonathan - 3% 12% 27% 33% 21% 5%
25 LO Stefan 1% 5% 19% 34% 29% 11% 1%
26 CHU Clayton - - 2% 14% 39% 39% 6%
27 BUSH Andrew 1% 10% 25% 32% 23% 8% 1%
28 HAN Alex - 1% 8% 28% 42% 21% 1%
29 GONG Rongtao 6% 25% 38% 24% 6% 1% -
30 LI John - 2% 13% 32% 34% 15% 2%
31 ZHANG JENSON 1% 8% 26% 35% 22% 7% 1%
32 LEE Cooper 6% 30% 39% 20% 5% 1% -
33 JIN JETFAN - - - 2% 16% 49% 33%
34 CHO Lincoln 2% 13% 31% 33% 17% 4% -
35 NOZAWA Luke - - 1% 9% 27% 40% 22%
36 KIM Benjamin 3% 17% 36% 32% 11% 1% -
37 ELARDO Griffin 1% 6% 21% 34% 27% 10% 2%
38 KIM Hayden 1% 8% 23% 33% 25% 10% 1%
39 LEE Daniel 1% 8% 23% 34% 25% 8% 1%
40 YIM Benjamin 2% 11% 27% 32% 20% 7% 1%
41 LAU Jesse 11% 33% 36% 17% 3% -
42 MCEWEN Max 17% 39% 31% 11% 2% -
42 DODDAPANENI Arjun 1% 8% 27% 38% 22% 4% -
44 SI Alexander 5% 23% 38% 26% 8% 1%
45 KOU Logan 17% 39% 31% 11% 2% - -
46 HUYNH Ethan 7% 24% 33% 24% 9% 2% -
47 JI Dylan 10% 35% 37% 15% 2% - -
48 HONG Eason 2% 12% 28% 32% 19% 6% 1%
49 WANG Alexander 11% 32% 34% 18% 5% 1% -
50 LI Ethan 9% 30% 36% 19% 5% -
51 LI Anson 21% 39% 28% 10% 2% -
52 DUCOURNAU Enzo 5% 25% 39% 23% 6% 1% -
53 DAI Greyson 10% 33% 37% 17% 3% - -
54 TENG Eric 4% 20% 37% 29% 9% 1%
54 DEMIRCHIAN Edward 11% 34% 34% 16% 4% - -
56 GOMEZ Emmett 30% 43% 22% 5% 1% - -
57 SHI Ethan 2% 12% 31% 36% 18% 3% -
58 LU Mark 6% 24% 38% 25% 6% 1% -
59 LEE Zeo 46% 40% 12% 2% - - -
60 SAMUELSON Ben - 5% 20% 35% 28% 11% 1%
61 IGISSINOV Nurali 3% 17% 36% 31% 12% 2% -
62 YANG Mikey 15% 34% 32% 15% 4% - -
63 YANG Rony 5% 21% 35% 27% 10% 2% -
64 XUE Jason 8% 26% 34% 23% 8% 1% -
65 EVANS Harvey 16% 37% 32% 12% 2% - -
66 WAN William 18% 39% 30% 10% 2% - -
67 SCHOELLHAMMER John 10% 30% 34% 19% 5% 1% -
69 CHIANG WESLEY 39% 43% 16% 2% - - -

Explanation

The heatmap in this table provides a visual representation of the victory probability distribution for each fencer in their respective pools:

This heatmap visualization offers an immediate understanding of each fencer's expected performance compared to their actual results.