Mary Rafanelli RYC/RJCC

Y-12 Women's Épée

Monday, January 19, 2026 at 2:00 PM

Pasadena Convention Center - Pasadena, CA, USA

Probability density of pool victories

Birth Year

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Explore the pool victory probability density for each fencer, with their actual victories highlighted in a box. Learn more.

#	Name	Number of victories
#	Name	0	1	2	3	4	5	6
1	SUN Joanna	-	-	3%	19%	44%	34%
2	YIP Allison	-	-	-	1%	10%	38%	50%
3	FLYNN Kensington	-	1%	7%	22%	37%	27%	5%
3	LIAO irene	-	-	2%	22%	76%
5	ARNOLD Evangeline	-	-	3%	17%	42%	38%
6	WONG Isabelle	-	1%	8%	29%	42%	20%
7	KUSHNERENKO Maiia	1%	7%	25%	38%	24%	5%
8	LYNTON Alexandra	-	2%	14%	38%	35%	10%
9	MIAO Anthea	-	-	4%	19%	42%	32%	3%
10	TRUONG Chloe	2%	15%	35%	33%	14%	2%
11	LU Chu	-	5%	22%	39%	28%	6%
12	YANG Nina	-	7%	36%	49%	8%
13	LYNTON Olivia	-	-	2%	11%	32%	39%	16%
14	WANG Phoebe	-	3%	14%	32%	34%	15%	2%
15	DEJOY Leilah	-	2%	14%	36%	35%	12%
16	WANG Kercedes Ye	-	4%	19%	37%	31%	9%
17	VOO Evelyn	-	2%	12%	34%	38%	14%
18	CHU Brianna	5%	23%	36%	25%	9%	1%	-
20	LEE Rebecca	-	1%	10%	37%	40%	12%
21	WANG Olivia	4%	21%	40%	27%	7%	1%
22	DING Xuanwen	1%	11%	31%	36%	18%	3%
23	LI Claire	7%	42%	40%	10%	-
24	SHIH Eva	-	2%	11%	29%	37%	18%	3%
25	ZHANG ANGELA	5%	24%	38%	25%	8%	1%	-
26	HUANG Sophie	1%	10%	31%	38%	18%	3%
27	LICON Katherine	-	1%	6%	25%	42%	26%
28	LEE Layla	9%	30%	36%	19%	5%	1%	-
29	STEPHAN Antje Elisa	2%	13%	30%	34%	18%	4%	-
30	MUHLENBRUCH Cora	6%	24%	36%	25%	8%	1%	-
31	SCHWARTZMAN Avital	30%	45%	21%	4%	-	-
32	MANDAP Natalya	12%	37%	35%	14%	2%	-
33	ROSENFELD Liv	56%	36%	8%	1%	-	-
34	KEDAN Carmella	34%	43%	19%	4%	-	-
35	YU Elise	7%	32%	39%	19%	4%	-
36	HSIEH Sophie	7%	36%	39%	16%	2%	-
37	FLESHER Mia	6%	31%	44%	16%	2%	-
38	YANG Maggie Qiqi	5%	32%	46%	16%	1%
39	MA Sloane	15%	35%	33%	14%	3%	-	-
40	SHIH Cayla	28%	42%	24%	6%	1%	-	-
41	WANG Elizabeth	55%	36%	8%	1%	-	-
41	BAI lufei	65%	30%	4%	-	-
43	HWANG Faith	21%	44%	27%	7%	1%	-
44	WHITE Zinnia	< 1%	3%	16%	37%	34%	9%	1%

Explanation

The heatmap in this table provides a visual representation of the victory probability distribution for each fencer in their respective pools:

Each cell in a fencer's row corresponds to a specific number of victories, starting from the left with no victories and increasing to the right, indicating victories in all bouts.
The shading of each cell represents the probability of that particular victory outcome for the fencer. Darker shades indicate higher probabilities, suggesting that the outcome is more likely based on past performances. On the other hand, lighter shades point towards less probable outcomes.
The boxed number in a cell represents the actual number of victories the fencer achieved in the pool, making it easy to compare predicted probabilities with actual outcomes at a glance.
By examining the gradient from lighter to darker cells, you can get an intuitive sense of where a fencer's victories are more or less expected based on their historical performance.

This heatmap visualization offers an immediate understanding of each fencer's expected performance compared to their actual results.

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