The Midwinter Melee

Div II Mixed Foil

Sunday, February 1, 2026 at 9:00 AM

Candlewood Fencing Center - newtown, CT, USA

Probability density of pool victories

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Explore the pool victory probability density for each fencer, with their actual victories highlighted in a box. Learn more.

# Name Number of victories
0 1 2 3 4 5
1 SMITH Liam - - - - 41% 58%
2 ULYSSE Jacob - 5% 22% 43% 30%
3 GECKELER James 2% 14% 35% 36% 13%
3 CHOU-ESTEBAN pau 2% 15% 36% 35% 12%
5 DAO-CRESPO Joaquin - 2% 15% 45% 37% -
6 MINOR Payson 8% 29% 38% 21% 4%
7 KIM Claire J. 10% 35% 37% 15% 3% -
8 CHO Alexander 4% 25% 45% 24% 3%
9 HOWARD Fox - 1% 9% 41% 40% 9%
10 LAVINE Samantha 1% 11% 35% 40% 12% 1%
11 KEEGAN Cole - 4% 23% 48% 25% -
12 MASTROPAOLO Jonah - 1% 5% 21% 41% 31%
13 BOURNE Zane 22% 44% 27% 7% 1%
14 QUAN Noah 9% 34% 38% 16% 2%
15 DAVIDSON Henry 10% 36% 39% 13% 1% -
16 PRINZ-STRATEMAN Matilda 28% 44% 23% 5% - -
17 BASILE Gianna 14% 42% 33% 10% 1%
18 BARBANEL Joseph 8% 28% 36% 22% 6% 1%
19 KISIEL Lucas 8% 37% 40% 13% 1% -
20 GRANADOS Luis 7% 28% 38% 22% 5%
21 GOMEZ Sofia 12% 43% 34% 10% 1% -
22 SKYRM Spencer 2% 20% 42% 30% 6%

Explanation

The heatmap in this table provides a visual representation of the victory probability distribution for each fencer in their respective pools:

This heatmap visualization offers an immediate understanding of each fencer's expected performance compared to their actual results.