The Midwinter Melee

Div II Mixed Foil

Sunday, February 1, 2026 at 9:00 AM

Candlewood Fencing Center - newtown, CT, USA

Probability density of pool victories

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Explore the probability of achieving at least a certain number of victories in the pool for each fencer, with their actual victories highlighted in a box. Learn more.

# Name Number of victories
0 1 2 3 4 5
1 SMITH Liam 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 58%
2 ULYSSE Jacob 100% 100% 95% 73% 30%
3 GECKELER James 100% 98% 84% 49% 13%
3 CHOU-ESTEBAN pau 100% 98% 84% 48% 12%
5 DAO-CRESPO Joaquin 100% 100% 98% 83% 38% -
6 MINOR Payson 100% 92% 63% 25% 4%
7 KIM Claire J. 100% 90% 55% 18% 3% -
8 CHO Alexander 100% 96% 71% 26% 3%
9 HOWARD Fox 100% 100% 99% 90% 49% 9%
10 LAVINE Samantha 100% 99% 88% 52% 12% 1%
11 KEEGAN Cole 100% 100% 96% 73% 25% -
12 MASTROPAOLO Jonah 100% 100% 99% 94% 73% 31%
13 BOURNE Zane 100% 78% 34% 7% 1%
14 QUAN Noah 100% 91% 56% 19% 2%
15 DAVIDSON Henry 100% 90% 54% 15% 1% -
16 PRINZ-STRATEMAN Matilda 100% 72% 28% 5% - -
17 BASILE Gianna 100% 86% 44% 11% 1%
18 BARBANEL Joseph 100% 92% 65% 28% 7% 1%
19 KISIEL Lucas 100% 92% 55% 15% 1% -
20 GRANADOS Luis 100% 93% 65% 27% 5%
21 GOMEZ Sofia 100% 88% 45% 11% 1% -
22 SKYRM Spencer 100% 98% 78% 36% 6%

Explanation

The heatmap in this table provides a visual representation of the victory probability distribution for each fencer in their respective pools:

This heatmap visualization offers an immediate understanding of each fencer's expected performance compared to their actual results.