February NAC

Vet-50 Men's Foil

Thursday, February 12, 2026 at 10:00 AM

Duke Energy Convention Center - Cincinnati, OH, USA

Probability density of pool victories

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Explore the pool victory probability density for each fencer, with their actual victories highlighted in a box. Learn more.

#	Name	Number of victories
#	Name	0	1	2	3	4	5	6
1	SUAREZ Rafael A.	-	-	-	-	1%	16%	83%
2	WYSZYNSKI Marek B.	-	-	2%	18%	48%	32%
3	CHO Michael	-	-	2%	17%	47%	34%
3	GONZALEZ II John L.	2%	14%	34%	34%	14%	2%
5	LOPEZ Reynaldo (REY)	-	-	3%	20%	47%	30%
6	HARKINS Craig T.	-	1%	6%	27%	44%	22%
7	ANDERSON Nathan T.	-	-	3%	17%	43%	37%
7	TYSHCHENKO Andrey	-	-	5%	25%	45%	24%
9	POPOKH Leo	-	-	1%	11%	39%	49%
10	ZHANG Jie	-	-	4%	19%	41%	32%	3%
11	KISSINGFORD John F.	-	-	3%	21%	48%	28%
12	SIRICO Thomas (Tommy) P.	-	-	4%	20%	45%	30%
13	WAY Kashi M.	-	9%	36%	41%	13%	1%
14	ZHAO Zhiyong	-	4%	25%	45%	23%	3%
15	GEARHART Andrew (Andy) R.	-	2%	15%	37%	36%	9%
16	TANG Julian	-	2%	13%	34%	38%	13%
17	CHENG Thomas	1%	14%	42%	33%	9%	1%
18	FOELLMER Oliver K.	-	-	2%	17%	47%	33%
18	MUELLER Donn	-	6%	26%	41%	22%	4%
20	VALENTINE Iain	2%	16%	37%	33%	11%	1%
21	WU Clarence C.	-	4%	20%	39%	30%	8%	-
22	RIFFATERRE Jason	-	3%	15%	37%	34%	11%	-
23	KENT Dwain	1%	12%	33%	37%	15%	2%
24	FRENZINGER Douglas	-	5%	26%	42%	22%	4%
25	LEE Hans	21%	50%	25%	4%	-	-
26	CLAYTON Byron	21%	44%	27%	7%	1%	-	-
27	BERKE Daniel (Dan) L.	39%	43%	15%	2%	-	-
28	WOOD BEn	14%	41%	34%	11%	1%	-
29	NEWELL Tim	49%	42%	9%	1%	-	-
30	GERACI Paul A.	2%	17%	37%	31%	11%	1%	-
31	SPRINGER Michael	31%	45%	20%	4%	-	-	-
32	HERNANDEZ Marc A.	15%	49%	29%	6%	1%	-
33	MINOTT Nicolas D.	30%	42%	22%	5%	-	-
34	BALBOA Rolando M.	-	10%	40%	38%	11%	1%
35	KIM Ethan	4%	25%	42%	24%	5%	-
36	GUERRERO Gonzalo	14%	40%	33%	11%	1%	-
37	LEYLAND John	8%	50%	34%	8%	1%	-
38	MONSEFI Amir	5%	25%	39%	24%	6%	-
39	NUDELMAN Aleksandr	7%	28%	38%	21%	5%	-
40	TOWSTER Robert	57%	36%	6%	-	-	-
41	DE BARROS CONTI Thibaut	2%	19%	45%	28%	5%	-
42	STOY Patrick	78%	20%	1%	-	-	-
42	RUSANOV Oleg	36%	43%	18%	3%	-	-

Explanation

The heatmap in this table provides a visual representation of the victory probability distribution for each fencer in their respective pools:

Each cell in a fencer's row corresponds to a specific number of victories, starting from the left with no victories and increasing to the right, indicating victories in all bouts.
The shading of each cell represents the probability of that particular victory outcome for the fencer. Darker shades indicate higher probabilities, suggesting that the outcome is more likely based on past performances. On the other hand, lighter shades point towards less probable outcomes.
The boxed number in a cell represents the actual number of victories the fencer achieved in the pool, making it easy to compare predicted probabilities with actual outcomes at a glance.
By examining the gradient from lighter to darker cells, you can get an intuitive sense of where a fencer's victories are more or less expected based on their historical performance.

This heatmap visualization offers an immediate understanding of each fencer's expected performance compared to their actual results.

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