Long Island Challenge ROC & RPC

Div I-A Men's Épée

Saturday, February 28, 2026 at 9:00 AM

Mission Fencing Center - Rocky Point, NY, USA

Probability density of pool victories

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Explore the pool victory probability density for each fencer, with their actual victories highlighted in a box. Learn more.

# Name Number of victories
0 1 2 3 4 5 6
1 TSE Maxwell - - 1% 8% 27% 42% 21%
2 SVERDLOV Seth - - - 1% 8% 35% 56%
3 SWENSON Keane J. - 1% 6% 23% 42% 28%
3 DJONOUMA Toyohm - - 1% 8% 26% 42% 23%
5 ROGAK Benjamin A. - - - 1% 8% 35% 56%
6 BRADSHAW Carter - 1% 8% 23% 35% 26% 7%
7 GAO Victor - - 2% 11% 31% 39% 17%
8 KOEPPEL Levi E. - 2% 12% 32% 38% 17%
9 BAJAJ Nakul - - 2% 10% 30% 40% 18%
10 LYCHKO Maksym 1% 7% 22% 34% 27% 9% 1%
11 WU Jonathan - - - 1% 10% 41% 48%
12 PAYNE Massimo - 2% 13% 32% 35% 16% 2%
13 LEHR William D. - - - 2% 15% 41% 42%
14 SHREM Samuel G. - - 1% 7% 27% 47% 18%
15 YAMAGUCHI Yuzuki - 1% 6% 21% 35% 28% 8%
16 LI Jade - 5% 20% 37% 30% 8%
17 HU Robert J. - - - 2% 14% 42% 42%
18 SU Caleb - - - - 3% 23% 74%
19 TRAN Spencer - - 5% 21% 38% 29% 6%
20 LIU Adam - 1% 11% 31% 39% 17%
21 GLUSHKOV David - 3% 15% 31% 32% 16% 3%
22 KUSACTAY Eric 1% 9% 29% 36% 20% 4% -
23 HOWARD Jackson 2% 13% 32% 35% 16% 3%
24 ZHENG Jason 11% 35% 35% 15% 3% -
25 YU Samuel - 1% 7% 22% 35% 27% 8%
26 O'LONGAIGH Sunkhar 2% 14% 33% 33% 14% 2% -
27 SOLARZ Arthur - 10% 32% 36% 18% 4% -
28 ALEXANDER Jacksen - 4% 18% 35% 31% 11% 1%
29 ADAMS Zachary J. - 2% 10% 29% 37% 20% 3%
30 SUH Aiden 1% 6% 24% 38% 25% 5% -
31 SMITH Troy H. 1% 7% 26% 38% 23% 5%
32 ZUKOFSKY Zachary - 3% 15% 34% 35% 13%
33 CHEN Tianjun - 3% 16% 34% 32% 13% 2%
34 CHEN Edward - 2% 11% 30% 36% 18% 2%
35 SUN Lucas 1% 7% 22% 34% 26% 9% 1%
36 JHA Adarsh 16% 37% 32% 13% 3% - -
37 KARIMOV Amir - 2% 14% 34% 36% 13%
38 PAN Anthony 10% 33% 36% 17% 4% -
39 O'HARROW Tristan C. 1% 9% 29% 37% 20% 4%
40 RIM Eugene 1% 9% 28% 37% 21% 4%
41 MEHROTRA Neel 1% 9% 28% 37% 21% 4%
42 NABAVI Matthew R. - 3% 14% 33% 35% 15% 2%
43 LI Ray 2% 17% 35% 31% 12% 2% -
44 CARPENTER Touma S. - 5% 23% 37% 26% 8% 1%
45 HEISLER Maxfield 9% 32% 36% 18% 5% 1% -
46 BANNEN Nicholas - 3% 16% 34% 33% 12% 1%
47 ABEND James 15% 36% 32% 13% 2% - -
48 WU Matthew 1% 7% 26% 37% 23% 6% -
49 CRESPO Nathaniel Justus 1% 7% 22% 35% 26% 8% 1%
50 LIN Yufei 7% 33% 37% 18% 4% - -
51 JOYNER Braylon 6% 23% 34% 26% 10% 2% -
52 MANSFIELD Hunter 13% 36% 34% 14% 3% - -
53 DATSON David 3% 30% 40% 21% 5% 1% -
54 CHEN Raymond 13% 40% 33% 12% 2% -
55 FAICCO Joseph - - 2% 12% 33% 39% 13%
56 PETINO Leonardo 2% 11% 27% 34% 20% 5% -
57 DURKIN Hudson - 5% 24% 38% 25% 7% 1%
58 LEE Henry 7% 25% 36% 24% 7% 1% -
59 SUBRAMANIAM Sahil - 4% 21% 37% 28% 9% 1%
60 NILSEN Mark 18% 39% 31% 10% 2% - -
61 LAU LUCAS 5% 25% 38% 24% 7% 1% -
62 SONG Charlie 2% 16% 35% 32% 13% 2%
63 STEVENS Owen 33% 42% 20% 4% - -
64 LIN Lucas 43% 41% 13% 2% - -
65 LIU Pan Iok 79% 20% 2% - - - -
66 CHAU Collin 7% 24% 35% 25% 9% 1% -
67 CLARE James 8% 27% 36% 22% 7% 1% -
68 MARINI Davide - 4% 18% 35% 31% 11% 1%
69 LEE Elijah 1% 30% 42% 22% 5% 1% -
70 TANG Jeremy 1% 10% 28% 34% 20% 6% 1%
71 MELUCCI Jonathan 43% 41% 14% 2% - - -
72 WU Robert 6% 28% 38% 22% 5% 1% -
73 KLINKENBERG Patrick 32% 42% 20% 5% - -
74 DEL BUONO Nick 54% 36% 8% 1% - - -
75 WU Jerry 1% 8% 25% 35% 23% 7% 1%
76 JOSEPH Christophe F. 7% 30% 41% 19% 3% - -
77 LI Tyrese 42% 41% 14% 2% - - -
78 CHU Brandon A. < 1% 1% 10% 30% 37% 19% 3%
79 RICCOBONO Matthew 9% 30% 36% 19% 5% - -
80 DALY Liam 98% 2% - - - - -
81 OSHIMA Robert 6% 23% 35% 25% 9% 1% -

Explanation

The heatmap in this table provides a visual representation of the victory probability distribution for each fencer in their respective pools:

This heatmap visualization offers an immediate understanding of each fencer's expected performance compared to their actual results.