Long Island Challenge ROC & RPC

Div I-A Men's Épée

Saturday, February 28, 2026 at 9:00 AM

Mission Fencing Center - Rocky Point, NY, USA

Probability density of pool victories

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Explore the probability of achieving at least a certain number of victories in the pool for each fencer, with their actual victories highlighted in a box. Learn more.

# Name Number of victories
0 1 2 3 4 5 6
1 TSE Maxwell 100% 100% 100% 99% 90% 63% 21%
2 SVERDLOV Seth 100% 100% 100% 100% 99% 90% 56%
3 SWENSON Keane J. 100% 100% 99% 93% 70% 28%
3 DJONOUMA Toyohm 100% 100% 100% 99% 91% 65% 23%
5 ROGAK Benjamin A. 100% 100% 100% 100% 99% 91% 56%
6 BRADSHAW Carter 100% 100% 99% 91% 68% 33% 7%
7 GAO Victor 100% 100% 100% 98% 87% 56% 17%
8 KOEPPEL Levi E. 100% 100% 98% 86% 55% 17%
9 BAJAJ Nakul 100% 100% 100% 98% 88% 58% 18%
10 LYCHKO Maksym 100% 99% 92% 71% 37% 10% 1%
11 WU Jonathan 100% 100% 100% 100% 99% 89% 48%
12 PAYNE Massimo 100% 100% 97% 84% 52% 17% 2%
13 LEHR William D. 100% 100% 100% 100% 97% 83% 42%
14 SHREM Samuel G. 100% 100% 100% 99% 93% 65% 18%
15 YAMAGUCHI Yuzuki 100% 100% 99% 93% 72% 36% 8%
16 LI Jade 100% 100% 95% 75% 39% 8%
17 HU Robert J. 100% 100% 100% 100% 98% 84% 42%
18 SU Caleb 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 97% 74%
19 TRAN Spencer 100% 100% 100% 94% 73% 35% 6%
20 LIU Adam 100% 100% 99% 88% 56% 17%
21 GLUSHKOV David 100% 100% 97% 82% 51% 19% 3%
22 KUSACTAY Eric 100% 99% 90% 61% 25% 5% -
23 HOWARD Jackson 100% 98% 86% 54% 19% 3%
24 ZHENG Jason 100% 89% 54% 19% 3% -
25 YU Samuel 100% 100% 99% 92% 70% 35% 8%
26 O'LONGAIGH Sunkhar 100% 98% 84% 50% 17% 3% -
27 SOLARZ Arthur 100% 100% 89% 57% 22% 4% -
28 ALEXANDER Jacksen 100% 100% 96% 79% 44% 13% 1%
29 ADAMS Zachary J. 100% 100% 98% 88% 59% 22% 3%
30 SUH Aiden 100% 99% 93% 69% 31% 6% -
31 SMITH Troy H. 100% 99% 93% 67% 28% 5%
32 ZUKOFSKY Zachary 100% 100% 97% 82% 48% 13%
33 CHEN Tianjun 100% 100% 97% 81% 46% 15% 2%
34 CHEN Edward 100% 100% 98% 87% 57% 20% 2%
35 SUN Lucas 100% 99% 92% 70% 36% 9% 1%
36 JHA Adarsh 100% 84% 47% 16% 3% - -
37 KARIMOV Amir 100% 100% 98% 84% 49% 13%
38 PAN Anthony 100% 90% 57% 21% 4% -
39 O'HARROW Tristan C. 100% 99% 91% 62% 24% 4%
40 RIM Eugene 100% 99% 90% 62% 25% 4%
41 MEHROTRA Neel 100% 99% 90% 62% 25% 4%
42 NABAVI Matthew R. 100% 100% 97% 84% 51% 17% 2%
43 LI Ray 100% 98% 81% 46% 14% 2% -
44 CARPENTER Touma S. 100% 100% 95% 72% 35% 9% 1%
45 HEISLER Maxfield 100% 91% 59% 23% 5% 1% -
46 BANNEN Nicholas 100% 100% 97% 80% 46% 13% 1%
47 ABEND James 100% 85% 48% 16% 3% - -
48 WU Matthew 100% 99% 92% 66% 29% 6% -
49 CRESPO Nathaniel Justus 100% 99% 93% 70% 35% 9% 1%
50 LIN Yufei 100% 93% 60% 23% 5% - -
51 JOYNER Braylon 100% 94% 71% 37% 11% 2% -
52 MANSFIELD Hunter 100% 87% 52% 17% 3% - -
53 DATSON David 100% 97% 67% 27% 6% 1% -
54 CHEN Raymond 100% 87% 47% 14% 2% -
55 FAICCO Joseph 100% 100% 100% 98% 86% 52% 13%
56 PETINO Leonardo 100% 98% 87% 60% 26% 6% -
57 DURKIN Hudson 100% 100% 95% 71% 33% 8% 1%
58 LEE Henry 100% 93% 68% 32% 9% 1% -
59 SUBRAMANIAM Sahil 100% 100% 96% 74% 38% 10% 1%
60 NILSEN Mark 100% 82% 43% 12% 2% - -
61 LAU LUCAS 100% 95% 70% 32% 7% 1% -
62 SONG Charlie 100% 98% 82% 47% 15% 2%
63 STEVENS Owen 100% 67% 24% 5% - -
64 LIN Lucas 100% 57% 15% 2% - -
65 LIU Pan Iok 100% 21% 2% - - - -
66 CHAU Collin 100% 93% 70% 35% 10% 1% -
67 CLARE James 100% 92% 65% 30% 8% 1% -
68 MARINI Davide 100% 100% 96% 78% 43% 12% 1%
69 LEE Elijah 100% 99% 70% 28% 6% 1% -
70 TANG Jeremy 100% 99% 89% 60% 26% 6% 1%
71 MELUCCI Jonathan 100% 57% 17% 3% - - -
72 WU Robert 100% 94% 66% 28% 6% 1% -
73 KLINKENBERG Patrick 100% 68% 26% 5% 1% -
74 DEL BUONO Nick 100% 46% 9% 1% - - -
75 WU Jerry 100% 99% 91% 66% 31% 7% 1%
76 JOSEPH Christophe F. 100% 93% 64% 23% 3% - -
77 LI Tyrese 100% 58% 17% 3% - - -
78 CHU Brandon A. 100% 100% 99% 89% 59% 22% 3%
79 RICCOBONO Matthew 100% 91% 61% 24% 5% - -
80 DALY Liam 100% 2% - - - - -
81 OSHIMA Robert 100% 94% 70% 36% 11% 1% -

Explanation

The heatmap in this table provides a visual representation of the victory probability distribution for each fencer in their respective pools:

This heatmap visualization offers an immediate understanding of each fencer's expected performance compared to their actual results.