Fortune RYC/RJCC

Y-10 Men's Saber

Saturday, March 14, 2026 at 3:30 PM

Ontario Convention Center - Ontario, CA, USA

Probability density of pool victories

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Explore the pool victory probability density for each fencer, with their actual victories highlighted in a box. Learn more.

#	Name	Number of victories
#	Name	0	1	2	3	4	5	6
1	GALANG Aiden	-	-	2%	12%	39%	48%
2	CHEN Donovan	-	3%	16%	36%	34%	11%
3	LEE Hubert Junhu	-	-	-	2%	16%	42%	39%
3	CHANG Allen	-	3%	14%	32%	35%	16%
5	JIA Andrew	-	1%	9%	29%	40%	20%
6	SHETTY Vikram	3%	17%	33%	31%	14%	2%
7	YANG Collin	-	2%	13%	35%	37%	13%
8	LEE Albert	-	-	3%	17%	42%	38%
9	WU August	-	5%	19%	36%	30%	9%
10	HWANG Noah	1%	11%	32%	37%	16%	2%
11	LAM Dylan	1%	7%	25%	38%	24%	6%
12	JIANG Hardy	-	2%	11%	31%	38%	18%
13	ANDERSON Bradley	2%	13%	32%	34%	16%	3%
14	LI Nathan	-	-	5%	21%	39%	28%	6%
15	QIU Carson	16%	40%	32%	11%	2%	-
16	TAM Ethan	7%	28%	37%	22%	6%	1%
17	YANG Austin	-	-	3%	17%	38%	33%	9%
18	PAN Wesley	3%	19%	37%	29%	9%	1%
19	QIAO Jason	-	2%	14%	35%	36%	12%
20	YAN Kaysen	1%	6%	25%	40%	25%	5%
21	WOO Jonathan	8%	31%	38%	18%	4%	-	-
22	GHATTAS August	-	4%	19%	37%	31%	10%
23	FERNANDEZ leo	14%	34%	33%	16%	4%	-
24	WANG Alex	-	5%	21%	39%	29%	5%
25	WANG YUHAO	6%	31%	38%	19%	4%	-
26	HWANG Leo	1%	11%	30%	35%	19%	4%
27	JIANG Harry	6%	40%	39%	14%	2%	-
28	WAN Andrew	9%	32%	37%	17%	4%	-	-
29	LEE Caleb	1%	10%	27%	35%	22%	5%
30	CHENG Daniel	61%	33%	6%	-	-	-
31	CHANG Jarrett	-	6%	23%	38%	26%	6%
32	KIM Dylan	1%	6%	25%	40%	23%	5%	-
33	HAO Jefferson	2%	13%	30%	34%	18%	3%
34	HORIKAWA Xander	2%	14%	34%	35%	14%	2%
35	JUNG Diego	29%	44%	22%	5%	-	-
36	XIA Daniel	2%	15%	35%	33%	13%	2%
37	LEE Damian	32%	42%	21%	5%	1%	-
38	WANG Grayson	13%	35%	34%	15%	3%	-
39	DAVIDSON Ethan	33%	43%	20%	4%	-	-	-
40	ZHANG Jiahang	29%	43%	22%	5%	-	-
41	LEUNG Ian	6%	24%	36%	25%	8%	1%
42	WEN yushuo	< 1%	6%	31%	42%	19%	2%
43	NGUYEN Phinix	51%	38%	10%	1%	-	-

Explanation

The heatmap in this table provides a visual representation of the victory probability distribution for each fencer in their respective pools:

Each cell in a fencer's row corresponds to a specific number of victories, starting from the left with no victories and increasing to the right, indicating victories in all bouts.
The shading of each cell represents the probability of that particular victory outcome for the fencer. Darker shades indicate higher probabilities, suggesting that the outcome is more likely based on past performances. On the other hand, lighter shades point towards less probable outcomes.
The boxed number in a cell represents the actual number of victories the fencer achieved in the pool, making it easy to compare predicted probabilities with actual outcomes at a glance.
By examining the gradient from lighter to darker cells, you can get an intuitive sense of where a fencer's victories are more or less expected based on their historical performance.

This heatmap visualization offers an immediate understanding of each fencer's expected performance compared to their actual results.

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