George Mason University Patriot Open 2026

Div III Mixed Épée

Sunday, March 29, 2026 at 1:00 PM

George Mason Recreational Athletics Complex (RAC) - Fairfax, VA, USA

Probability density of pool victories

Reset

Explore the probability of achieving at least a certain number of victories in the pool for each fencer, with their actual victories highlighted in a box. Learn more.

# Name Number of victories
0 1 2 3 4 5 6
1 WU Shaochi 100% 100% 95% 71% 31% 5%
2 FEAGIN Patrick 100% 100% 98% 85% 54% 19% 2%
3 PENNER Kyle D. 100% 100% 100% 99% 88% 46%
3 TANG Justin 100% 100% 96% 73% 33% 6%
5 SMOTHERS Nathan 100% 99% 88% 61% 27% 7% 1%
6 PRAKASH Rahul 100% 100% 100% 98% 90% 65% 25%
7 CANDELARIA Armando 100% 100% 98% 86% 53% 13%
8 STEVENS Daniel L. 100% 96% 73% 33% 7% -
9 SHIN Jamie 100% 97% 79% 46% 16% 3% -
10 CAVE Rylan 100% 100% 99% 88% 57% 15%
11 HAYES Nathan P. 100% 100% 100% 98% 87% 58% 20%
12 GOMEZ David 100% 100% 98% 87% 61% 28% 6%
13 STULAK Brendan 100% 100% 100% 98% 83% 38%
14 MOLINA Rommel 100% 98% 58% 13% 1% -
15 HUANG Taohua 100% 97% 81% 48% 18% 3% -
16 CARNALL Hunter 100% 100% 99% 93% 62% 17%
17 SZIEDE Kieran 100% 100% 97% 79% 37% 6%
18 CHONG Eden 100% 100% 97% 79% 41% 9%
19 SIMS Martin L. 100% 96% 75% 36% 9% 1%
20 KOOB Julian 100% 99% 94% 74% 40% 13% 2%
21 ABU-AJAJ Mohamed 100% 100% 99% 93% 69% 27%
22 PERILLO Edoardo Filippo Mihai 100% 100% 100% 98% 85% 44%
23 HINDS David E. 100% 100% 99% 88% 55% 16%
24 MOORE Mary 100% 100% 95% 67% 26% 4%
25 LACHER Daniel 100% 88% 36% 7% 1% -
26 HO Lucas 100% 98% 83% 45% 11% 1%
27 HAGERMAN Siona 100% 95% 74% 41% 14% 3% -
28 ZORRO Camilo 100% 100% 98% 87% 59% 23% 3%
29 NGUYEN Ethan 100% 99% 88% 53% 15% 1%
30 PALPANDIAN Ilanchezhian 100% 100% 100% 96% 81% 46% 11%
31 HU Alexander W. 100% 100% 99% 90% 58% 18%
32 SMITHSON Matthew 100% 83% 40% 8% 1% -
33 GREINER Andreas 100% 97% 80% 48% 18% 3% -
34 STRAFFORD Andrew 100% 100% 98% 88% 61% 25% 4%
35 PERI Mourya 100% 99% 90% 61% 26% 6% 1%
36 PETROVSKI Kiril 100% 95% 58% 14% 1% -
37 KRECK Marie 100% 86% 47% 13% 2% -
38 DAVIS Kai 100% 88% 54% 20% 4% - -
38 THOMPSON Grace 100% 88% 55% 21% 4% - -
40 LUNDEN Espen 100% 97% 80% 47% 17% 3% -
41 SAMPAIO Beatriz 100% 61% 18% 3% - -
41 MARCUS Jonah 100% 88% 51% 15% 2% -
43 COTHRAN Nicholas 100% 81% 40% 10% 1% -
44 COYLE Emma 100% 99% 88% 61% 27% 7% 1%
45 SINGH Meet 100% 100% 99% 93% 73% 39% 9%
46 GAGNON Charles 100% 94% 65% 27% 6% 1% -
47 YOON Elsa 100% 76% 37% 10% 2% - -
48 THOMPSON Josh 100% 32% 4% - - -
49 DUDEK Nicholas 100% 93% 65% 27% 5% -
50 AKKALE Reyhan 100% 44% 9% 1% - -
51 HOTELLING Lisa 100% 89% 55% 17% 2% -

Explanation

The heatmap in this table provides a visual representation of the victory probability distribution for each fencer in their respective pools:

This heatmap visualization offers an immediate understanding of each fencer's expected performance compared to their actual results.