Bull City Y8 RYC/RJCC Tournament

Junior Men's Épée

Saturday, April 4, 2026 at 11:00 AM

Pro 3:5 Sports Academy - Raleigh, NC, USA

Probability density of pool victories

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Explore the pool victory probability density for each fencer, with their actual victories highlighted in a box. Learn more.

#	Name	Number of victories
#	Name	0	1	2	3	4	5	6
1	CLICK Tristan	-	-	-	-	5%	32%	63%
2	YI Nathan	-	1%	5%	19%	36%	31%	9%
3	HAN Sam	-	-	1%	7%	26%	42%	24%
3	SAAD Peter	1%	16%	39%	33%	10%	1%	-
5	CHO Alex	-	-	2%	9%	27%	40%	22%
6	SIMMES Jackson	-	-	1%	6%	24%	42%	27%
7	ROBERTS Phoenix	-	-	3%	17%	41%	34%	6%
8	CHONG Eden	4%	25%	38%	25%	7%	1%	-
9	RUSSELL James	-	-	1%	10%	29%	41%	19%
9	HALE Bradley	1%	5%	19%	33%	29%	12%	2%
11	UNZHAKOV Konstantin	1%	10%	27%	35%	21%	6%	1%
12	RAPALSKI Thomas	-	-	4%	16%	33%	34%	12%
13	LEECH Braedan	-	-	4%	20%	43%	29%	4%
14	DILDA Griffin	-	3%	13%	30%	34%	17%	3%
15	FEELY Benjamin	2%	14%	32%	32%	16%	4%	-
16	CUTHBERTSON Dax	1%	11%	30%	35%	18%	4%	-
17	JONES Gideon	11%	32%	34%	18%	5%	1%	-
18	GUO Benjamin	-	5%	22%	36%	27%	8%	1%
19	MCCABE Kian	-	6%	23%	36%	26%	8%	1%
20	STEPANIAN George	22%	40%	27%	9%	1%	-	-
21	KUYKENDALL Logan	1%	13%	36%	35%	13%	2%	-
22	PERI Mourya	6%	23%	35%	25%	9%	2%	-
23	SAAD Noah	11%	33%	35%	17%	4%	-	-
24	WU Jiachen	8%	27%	35%	22%	7%	1%	-
25	THOMPSON Josh	59%	33%	7%	1%	-	-	-
26	IMAYA KUMAR Kavin	68%	27%	4%	-	-	-	-
27	URIA Sullivan	2%	10%	27%	34%	21%	6%	1%
28	PRABHU Srinish	3%	32%	42%	19%	3%	-	-

Explanation

The heatmap in this table provides a visual representation of the victory probability distribution for each fencer in their respective pools:

Each cell in a fencer's row corresponds to a specific number of victories, starting from the left with no victories and increasing to the right, indicating victories in all bouts.
The shading of each cell represents the probability of that particular victory outcome for the fencer. Darker shades indicate higher probabilities, suggesting that the outcome is more likely based on past performances. On the other hand, lighter shades point towards less probable outcomes.
The boxed number in a cell represents the actual number of victories the fencer achieved in the pool, making it easy to compare predicted probabilities with actual outcomes at a glance.
By examining the gradient from lighter to darker cells, you can get an intuitive sense of where a fencer's victories are more or less expected based on their historical performance.

This heatmap visualization offers an immediate understanding of each fencer's expected performance compared to their actual results.

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