Neil Lazar RYC/RJCC

Y-10 Men's Foil

Sunday, April 5, 2026 at 8:00 AM

Floyd Little Athletic Center - New Haven, CT, USA

Probability density of pool victories

Birth Year

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Explore the pool victory probability density for each fencer, with their actual victories highlighted in a box. Learn more.

#	Name	Number of victories
#	Name	0	1	2	3	4	5
1	ZHANG Eric	-	1%	8%	38%	53%
2	CAO Aaron	-	-	1%	8%	36%	56%
3	GENG Vincent	-	1%	6%	25%	45%	23%
3	CHEN Keegan	-	-	5%	22%	44%	29%
5	MOON Nolan	-	-	4%	20%	45%	31%
6	TARDIFF Owen	1%	10%	34%	43%	12%
7	STARK Ethan	-	3%	18%	40%	33%	6%
8	LI Ethan	4%	20%	38%	29%	9%	1%
9	WU Yulen	-	-	2%	14%	42%	41%
10	ZHANG Andrew	1%	11%	34%	39%	14%	1%
11	LU Ethan	-	1%	10%	32%	41%	14%
12	XIA Wenhao	-	1%	6%	27%	45%	22%
13	DEL VALLE-LIN Julian	1%	7%	28%	41%	20%	3%
14	HO Marcus	8%	32%	42%	17%	2%
15	WANG Timothy	1%	11%	32%	37%	16%	2%
16	CHAO Jay	10%	33%	37%	16%	3%	-
17	MA Leo Missing ID
18	LANDON Forest	9%	30%	37%	19%	4%	-
19	SOBO Samuel	13%	36%	35%	14%	2%	-
20	CAI Charlie	26%	45%	24%	4%	-
21	RICE Henry	19%	49%	27%	5%	-	-
22	ZHU Winston	22%	46%	26%	6%	-	-
23	CUI Jason	21%	45%	28%	6%	-
24	CHEN Brayden	9%	31%	37%	19%	4%	-
25	DVORNEK Everett	30%	44%	21%	4%	-	-
26	LI William	3%	20%	40%	28%	8%	1%
27	WENG Luke Missing ID
28	KALAPALA Ranaveer	-	6%	30%	41%	20%	3%
29	CHEN Jonathan	19%	41%	31%	9%	1%	-
30	CHIANG Dean	16%	39%	32%	11%	1%	-
31	ZHANG Henry	44%	42%	12%	1%	-	-

Explanation

The heatmap in this table provides a visual representation of the victory probability distribution for each fencer in their respective pools:

Each cell in a fencer's row corresponds to a specific number of victories, starting from the left with no victories and increasing to the right, indicating victories in all bouts.
The shading of each cell represents the probability of that particular victory outcome for the fencer. Darker shades indicate higher probabilities, suggesting that the outcome is more likely based on past performances. On the other hand, lighter shades point towards less probable outcomes.
The boxed number in a cell represents the actual number of victories the fencer achieved in the pool, making it easy to compare predicted probabilities with actual outcomes at a glance.
By examining the gradient from lighter to darker cells, you can get an intuitive sense of where a fencer's victories are more or less expected based on their historical performance.

This heatmap visualization offers an immediate understanding of each fencer's expected performance compared to their actual results.

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