USA Fencing National Championships & July Challenge

Div I Men's Foil

Tuesday, July 2, 2019 at 8:00 AM

Columbus, OH - Columbus, OH, USA

Probability density of pool victories

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Explore the probability of achieving at least a certain number of victories in the pool for each fencer, with their actual victories highlighted in a box. Learn more.

# Name Number of victories
0 1 2 3 4 5 6
1 ZHANG Daniel D. 100% 100% 99% 93% 72% 36% 8%
2 TROFIMOV Dmitri 100% 100% 98% 86% 52% 15% 1%
3 MATHIEU Adam 100% 100% 100% 99% 92% 64% 22%
3 KUMBLA Sidarth 100% 100% 100% 100% 99% 94% 63%
5 LI Michael C. 100% 100% 100% 99% 95% 75% 34%
6 CHEN James P. 100% 100% 100% 99% 93% 70% 29%
7 SAVIN Rafael 100% 100% 100% 95% 78% 44% 12%
8 KANESHIGE Brian K. 100% 100% 100% 98% 87% 54% 15%
9 DANIEL Ashton 100% 100% 99% 94% 77% 43% 12%
10 GASSNER Ethan I. 100% 100% 100% 96% 79% 45% 12%
11 DEXARCIS Lucas 100% 100% 96% 79% 44% 11%
12 VOGLER Justin K. 100% 98% 86% 57% 24% 5% < 1%
13 HOSSFELD Finn E. 100% 100% 99% 93% 70% 33% 7%
14 PARKINS Benjamin B. 100% 100% 100% 97% 84% 50% 14%
15 ANDRADE Nicholas H. 100% 100% 99% 90% 62% 20%
16 BRAVO Kenji U. 100% 100% 100% 98% 87% 59% 20%
17 MACHOVEC Andrew C. 100% 100% 100% 96% 82% 50% 14%
18 LIU Justin 100% 100% 100% 95% 78% 43% 11%
19 PAIK Joon K. 100% 100% 99% 94% 74% 37% 7%
20 RHEINGANS-YOO Duncan R. 100% 100% 99% 93% 71% 29%
21 LI Brandon H. 100% 100% 99% 93% 70% 32% 6%
22 ZUSIN Zachary W. 100% 100% 97% 84% 52% 18% 2%
23 ZHENG Andrew R. 100% 100% 99% 92% 71% 36% 8%
24 SNYTSHEUVEL John Evan (Evan) 100% 100% 97% 83% 53% 21% 3%
25 BOURTIS James S. 100% 100% 100% 99% 92% 65% 22%
26 LIU Niles J. 100% 100% 97% 83% 53% 20% 3%
27 LIU Patrick 100% 99% 90% 67% 34% 10% 1%
28 LIAO Jun Heng (James) 100% 100% 100% 100% 98% 84% 43%
29 DAYTON Draper 100% 99% 91% 65% 30% 7% 1%
30 HOLMES Stuart S. 100% 100% 100% 96% 82% 50% 15%
31 TAN Lawrence (Lance) E. 100% 99% 91% 67% 32% 8% 1%
32 LUTAR Lucas N. 100% 100% 100% 98% 90% 63% 24%
33 MOELIS Samuel (Sam) D. 100% 100% 100% 99% 94% 73% 30%
34 HODGES Carter F. 100% 100% 100% 98% 90% 63% 23%
35 KNODT Julian P. 100% 100% 96% 78% 44% 14% 2%
36 ORTS Lucas E. 100% 100% 100% 100% 95% 75% 33%
37 SENIC Anatolie 100% 99% 94% 76% 43% 14% 2%
38 MITBERG Gregory W. 100% 100% 100% 98% 88% 59% 20%
39 NDIAYE Edriss G. 100% 100% 97% 82% 48% 12%
40 SHAFAIE Kaveh 100% 100% 99% 95% 76% 40% 9%
41 HAN YIMING 100% 100% 100% 97% 84% 51% 14%
42 WELCH Kyle J. 100% 100% 97% 81% 47% 14% 1%
43 SCARPA Ryan N. 100% 100% 99% 94% 75% 39% 9%
44 XIAO Ethan J. 100% 100% 96% 79% 44% 13% 1%
45 CHUNG Andrew N. 100% 100% 99% 93% 74% 40% 11%
46 DICKSON Farr R. 100% 99% 90% 62% 25% 5% -
47 KAISER Hans Z. 100% 94% 70% 35% 10% 1% -
48 JOHNSON Aidan J. 100% 100% 99% 92% 72% 37% 9%
49 EMMER Chase T. 100% 100% 100% 96% 80% 46% 12%
50 HUANG Bin 100% 100% 100% 99% 95% 75% 34%
51 LEE Benjamin H. 100% 100% 96% 82% 51% 19% 3%
52 MCKENNA Joseph (Owen) O. 100% 100% 95% 77% 44% 15% 2%
53 RANADIVE Rishi R. 100% 100% 98% 87% 60% 25% 5%
54 GRUBER Samuel T. 100% 99% 93% 73% 40% 12% 2%
55 OSTATNIGROSH Andrey 100% 97% 80% 49% 19% 4% -
56 PAIK Hyun K. 100% 99% 91% 66% 29% 7% 1%
57 POON Simon 100% 100% 95% 75% 40% 12% 1%
58 TIERNEY David A. 100% 100% 96% 81% 50% 18% 3%
59 SLEDESKI Andrew 100% 90% 57% 22% 4% - -
60 TULYAG Fyze A. 100% 99% 90% 64% 30% 8% 1%
61 DONG Darren 100% 99% 94% 74% 41% 13% 2%
62 TUMMINGS C.J. 100% 96% 76% 39% 11% 1%
63 LI Brian H. 100% 100% 98% 89% 63% 28% 5%
64 PRILUTSKY David B. 100% 100% 97% 83% 51% 16% 1%
65 LOUIE Bryce 100% 100% 100% 98% 88% 59% 20%
66 MARINO Joseph A. 100% 100% 100% 95% 76% 41% 10%
67 OLIVARES Marcello G. 100% 100% 100% 100% 96% 77% 36%
68 KNIGHT Ethan H. 100% 98% 87% 59% 26% 6% 1%
68 CHOI Eric Y. 100% 89% 56% 21% 4% < 1% -
70 HOLMES Andrew E. 100% 100% 99% 95% 76% 39% 8%
71 KO Brian J. 100% 99% 88% 60% 27% 7% 1%
72 SONG Lawrence (Larry) 100% 100% 99% 90% 63% 26% 4%
73 LI Simon A. 100% 81% 43% 14% 2% - -
74 CHEN Ziyuan 100% 100% 97% 82% 50% 16% 2%
75 AYUPOV Ilya 100% 100% 96% 79% 45% 14% 2%
76 ZAKHARIKOV Anton 100% 100% 97% 84% 54% 20% 3%
77 BERMENDER Cameron 100% 98% 85% 55% 22% 5% -
78 YANG Adam 100% 99% 81% 43% 13% 2% -
79 ZHANG Vincent 100% 97% 77% 41% 12% 2% -
80 WU Jerry 100% 100% 97% 85% 54% 20% 3%
81 ZENG Lucas H. 100% 99% 91% 65% 30% 7% 1%
82 MURRAY Thomas J. 100% 95% 75% 41% 14% 2% -
83 SAMORA Jose G. 100% 97% 72% 32% 8% 1% -
84 OURSLER Jack 100% 96% 78% 45% 16% 3% -
85 GRIFFIN John O. 100% 99% 93% 68% 32% 7% 1%
86 ARIZA Isaac A. 100% 86% 51% 17% 3% -
87 WOODS Jack H. 100% 100% 94% 72% 34% 7%
88 LU Kerry L. 100% 99% 94% 75% 43% 14% 2%
89 MULLIGAN James 100% 99% 92% 72% 40% 13% 2%
89 PELOSKY Ryan F. 100% 99% 89% 61% 27% 6% 1%
91 BESSIRE Nolan S. 100% 100% 99% 92% 69% 34% 7%
92 HAMILTON Bogdan A. 100% 100% 95% 75% 40% 12% 2%
93 YEE Maxwell J. 100% 100% 100% 99% 90% 64% 23%
94 PALAZZOLO William J. 100% 93% 64% 27% 6% 1% -
95 PARK Luke J. 100% 98% 86% 57% 24% 5% -
96 UM Ethan A. 100% 98% 84% 52% 20% 4% -
97 LEE Caden 100% 94% 68% 30% 8% 1% -
98 OUELLETTE David M. 100% 95% 75% 41% 14% 2% -
99 CHIN Jason Y. 100% 90% 60% 26% 7% 1% -
100 KATAYAMA Kevin 100% 100% 99% 91% 68% 33% 7%
101 PRINCE Nicholas J. 100% 83% 47% 17% 4% - -
102 LI Jiaan 100% 93% 67% 32% 9% 1% -
103 LORENZONI Davide Ryoga 100% 100% 100% 97% 84% 51% 14%
103 XIAO Leon (Ruibo) 100% 99% 94% 75% 42% 13% 2%
105 BARLETTA Joseph 100% 93% 67% 32% 9% 1% -
106 YU Eric W. 100% 100% 98% 87% 60% 27% 6%
107 BAE Anthony 100% 99% 92% 66% 31% 8% 1%
108 URODOVSKIKH Evan 100% 86% 50% 17% 3% - -
109 RITCHIE Luke W. 100% 98% 85% 55% 23% 5% 1%
110 REID Clayton J. 100% 99% 91% 66% 30% 7% 1%
111 CAO Leon M. 100% 75% 34% 8% 1% -
112 YANG Andy H. 100% 92% 65% 29% 7% 1% -
113 WANG Brian S. 100% 100% 100% 97% 82% 47% 10%
113 WONG Wesley C. 100% 91% 62% 26% 6% 1% -
115 KONG Kenneth 100% 76% 36% 10% 2% - -
116 TAQI Ahmad F. 100% 95% 73% 39% 13% 2% -
117 SHIH Benjamin 100% 100% 100% 96% 77% 37% 7%
118 LIU Jonathan C. 100% 92% 63% 27% 6% 1% -
119 RUFFNER Blake W. 100% 71% 27% 5% 1% - -
119 HU Oliver W. 100% 99% 85% 52% 19% 4% -
121 DORITY Philip S. 100% 100% 97% 84% 52% 17% 2%
121 CHENG Thomas C. 100% 98% 84% 53% 20% 4% -
123 GIRALDO Pablo E. 100% 75% 35% 10% 1% - -
124 REALS Alden D. 100% 87% 51% 18% 4% - -
124 MEMANI Apurva 100% 98% 82% 49% 17% 3% -
124 KIM Nicholas W. 100% 98% 87% 57% 24% 5% -
127 TORO Alejandro 100% 73% 32% 8% 1% - -
128 YU Vinni 100% 98% 84% 55% 23% 5% -
129 JOHNSON Cole B. 100% 99% 92% 71% 38% 11% 1%
130 POON Alvin 100% 96% 78% 44% 14% 2% -
131 MCGILLION-MOORE Jake 100% 98% 81% 46% 16% 3% -
132 BLUTT Emerson B. 100% 94% 71% 36% 11% 2% -
133 NAGIMOV Marsel 100% 98% 84% 54% 22% 5% -
134 MARTINEZ Donavyn E. 100% 99% 90% 65% 30% 7% 1%
135 ROSSELLO Gustavo J. 100% 94% 69% 31% 8% 1% -
136 BOROWIAK Arwen 100% 100% 99% 91% 68% 32% 7%
137 FERNANDES Zain 100% 87% 53% 19% 4% - -
138 ZHANG Songhao Steven 100% 86% 50% 18% 3% - -
139 SHAFAIE Ali 100% 96% 75% 39% 10% 1%
140 MAURER Ned (John) E. 100% 93% 67% 30% 7% 1%
141 LEVY Jacob M. 100% 93% 66% 29% 7% 1%
142 FIELD Miles 100% 92% 61% 25% 6% 1% -
142 BINDER Zachary (Zach) B. 100% 100% 97% 85% 57% 23% 4%
144 EVANS Cameron R. 100% 100% 99% 90% 65% 30% 6%
145 BRATTON Jack S. 100% 99% 90% 64% 30% 7% 1%
146 LAW Robert C. 100% 98% 88% 62% 30% 8% 1%
147 LEVY Jasper 100% 100% 99% 93% 73% 39% 10%
148 KOZAK Mateusz 100% 100% 100% 95% 77% 41% 10%
149 GROSSMAN SMISEK Spencer E. 100% 97% 76% 40% 12% 2% -
150 PETER Griffin 100% 85% 50% 18% 4% - -
151 GRASS Andrew E. 100% 99% 92% 67% 32% 8% 1%
152 HEALY Griffen 100% 95% 73% 38% 12% 2% -
153 SHIH William 100% 62% 20% 4% - - -
153 JAUME Andrei 100% 25% 2% - - - -
153 WU Michael 100% 72% 31% 7% 1% - -
156 DIVENTI Paul W. 100% 97% 77% 41% 13% 2% -
156 LA ROSA Federico 100% 90% 58% 22% 4% - -
158 FLANAGAN James 100% 74% 30% 7% 1% - -
158 GEE Brandon 100% 92% 65% 30% 8% 1% -
160 MION Lorenzo 100% 73% 31% 7% 1% - -
161 FORTNER Lance R. 100% 91% 59% 22% 4% - -
162 UPTON Michael 100% 54% 15% 2% - - -
162 JOSEPH Dominic (Dom) 100% 94% 70% 36% 11% 2% -
164 LOVERAS Orlando S. 100% 69% 26% 5% - - -
164 DING Allan 100% 95% 74% 40% 13% 2% -
166 KIM Isaiah G. 100% 49% 12% 1% - - -
167 LEWIS Paul D. 100% 87% 49% 15% 2% -
168 BEAR Myles A. 100% 41% 8% 1% - - -
169 JACOBS Tyler M. 100% 67% 26% 6% 1% - -
170 MCCLAIN Bryce C. 100% 90% 59% 24% 5% 1% -
170 SIEGEL Elliot 100% 77% 34% 8% 1% - -
172 WU Alexander 100% 83% 45% 14% 2% - -
173 WOJCIECHOWSKI Matthew N. 100% 75% 35% 10% 1% - -

Explanation

The heatmap in this table provides a visual representation of the victory probability distribution for each fencer in their respective pools:

This heatmap visualization offers an immediate understanding of each fencer's expected performance compared to their actual results.