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December NAC

Div II Men's Foil

Friday, December 14, 2018 at 1:00 PM

Cincinnati, OH - Cincinnati, OH, USA

Probability density of pool victories

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Explore the pool victory probability density for each fencer, with their actual victories highlighted in a box. Learn more.

#	Name	Number of victories
#	Name	0	1	2	3	4	5	6
1	MORAIS Paulo	-	-	-	1%	6%	33%	60%
2	MION Lorenzo	-	-	1%	9%	39%	51%
3	FARQUHARSON Cole	-	-	4%	21%	45%	30%
3	ZHAO Jason L.	-	-	1%	8%	38%	54%
5	BOLTON Lucas R.	-	-	2%	11%	29%	39%	19%
6	ROBINSON Keegan B.	-	4%	31%	42%	20%	3%
7	ANDERSON David C.	-	11%	36%	37%	14%	2%
8	LARGAESPADA LUIS V.	2%	11%	30%	36%	18%	3%
9	KASI Sanjay	-	-	1%	12%	41%	46%
10	LEE Chris	-	-	1%	10%	30%	41%	18%
11	FERNANDES Zain	-	2%	13%	36%	36%	12%
12	WANG Michael	-	4%	18%	36%	32%	10%
13	RINEHART Conner M.	-	7%	26%	39%	24%	5%
15	MANGE Nathan	-	1%	10%	33%	43%	13%
16	FREEDMAN Samuel E.	4%	21%	37%	28%	8%	1%
17	MESSINESE Brando	-	1%	7%	32%	45%	16%
18	KONG Kenneth	-	2%	12%	32%	38%	16%
19	MCKINNEY Isaiah	-	2%	14%	33%	36%	14%
20	HAN Andersen Y.	3%	21%	42%	28%	5%	-	-
21	HSIUNG Richie	1%	16%	35%	32%	14%	3%	-
22	CHREKY Jacob D.	-	2%	12%	30%	36%	18%	2%
24	ESTEVES Dionel L.	7%	39%	39%	13%	2%	-
25	FOGELSON Frederick J.	1%	11%	39%	38%	10%	1%
26	ARTIS Tre D.	-	2%	13%	36%	35%	12%	1%
27	MANGE Andrew (Andrew Mange) E.	-	1%	7%	25%	40%	24%	3%
28	JANSEN Jesse	4%	19%	34%	30%	12%	2%	-
29	WANG Duke R.	1%	13%	37%	36%	12%	1%
30	HARDMAN III Harry C.	18%	40%	31%	10%	1%	-
31	LO Hung Yui	3%	17%	36%	32%	11%	1%
32	ANGLIN Benjamin S.	17%	42%	30%	9%	1%	-
33	SON Eric	-	8%	31%	40%	19%	2%
34	ZHANG Thales	6%	25%	36%	25%	7%	1%
35	BERKE Daniel (Dan) L.	2%	20%	42%	29%	7%	-
36	KITAGAWA Eric S.	-	3%	18%	39%	32%	9%	1%
37	SANCHEZ Leon D.	7%	26%	37%	24%	6%	-
38	LEYLAND John	56%	37%	7%	1%	-	-
39	MCINTOSH Michael	4%	25%	42%	24%	5%	-
40	WILBERT Matt	27%	46%	24%	4%	-	-
41	DENMAN Matthew L.	11%	38%	35%	13%	2%	-
43	VO Jonathan	44%	42%	12%	1%	-	-	-
44	PELAN Justin D.	7%	25%	34%	24%	9%	2%	-
45	GREEN Zachary J.	17%	42%	32%	8%	1%	-
46	GREEN Scott D.	22%	40%	28%	9%	1%	-
48	UPTON Craig	17%	38%	32%	12%	2%	-	-
49	KIRSHNER Ronald	53%	39%	8%	-	-	-
50	AMES Tucker	9%	32%	38%	17%	4%	-	-

Explanation

The heatmap in this table provides a visual representation of the victory probability distribution for each fencer in their respective pools:

Each cell in a fencer's row corresponds to a specific number of victories, starting from the left with no victories and increasing to the right, indicating victories in all bouts.
The shading of each cell represents the probability of that particular victory outcome for the fencer. Darker shades indicate higher probabilities, suggesting that the outcome is more likely based on past performances. On the other hand, lighter shades point towards less probable outcomes.
The boxed number in a cell represents the actual number of victories the fencer achieved in the pool, making it easy to compare predicted probabilities with actual outcomes at a glance.
By examining the gradient from lighter to darker cells, you can get an intuitive sense of where a fencer's victories are more or less expected based on their historical performance.

This heatmap visualization offers an immediate understanding of each fencer's expected performance compared to their actual results.

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