Nick Toth Fencing Tournament

Senior Men's Épée

Sunday, March 8, 2020 at 9:00 AM

USAFA Center Gymnasium - Colorado Springs, CO, USA

Probability density of pool victories

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Explore the pool victory probability density for each fencer, with their actual victories highlighted in a box. Learn more.

#	Name	Number of victories
#	Name	0	1	2	3	4	5
1	SHUGART Henry	-	-	2%	16%	45%	37%
2	HAN Matthew	-	2%	20%	46%	31%
3	REES Daniel	-	-	3%	18%	45%	34%
3	CELECKI Barrett	-	1%	9%	29%	42%	19%
5	KIMATIAN Stephen	-	-	2%	15%	42%	41%
7	CHERIS Zachariah	-	-	-	7%	38%	55%
8	SMITH Calvin	-	9%	45%	37%	8%
9	HOLDERNESS Landon	1%	11%	33%	38%	15%	2%
10	MAURER Chip	-	5%	26%	48%	21%
11	KAJI Ty	-	4%	18%	38%	33%	7%
12	GASPAROVICH George	-	1%	11%	34%	40%	14%
13	LUNA MARTINEZ Luis	1%	20%	44%	29%	5%	-
14	BURCH Tristan	63%	34%	4%	-	-
15	SPIER Julian	-	1%	14%	44%	41%
16	SOLTER Kai	8%	31%	39%	19%	3%	-
17	BRANDRETH Garret	-	-	5%	27%	50%	18%
18	MILLETT Seamus	-	3%	19%	42%	30%	6%
19	ZHOU Jiasheng	3%	26%	48%	20%	3%	-
20	TRIFILETTI Lawrence	2%	13%	34%	35%	14%	1%
21	EVANS Tyler	16%	38%	32%	12%	2%	-
22	STRAUSS Luke	19%	56%	22%	3%	-
23	KENT David "Chip"	33%	46%	19%	2%	-
24	KRUGER Mark	18%	45%	31%	6%	-
24	COFFEY Jacob	3%	29%	43%	21%	3%	-
26	PALLESEN Hugo	6%	27%	39%	23%	5%
27	WANG Alex	14%	38%	33%	13%	2%	-
28	RINGELHEIM Alexander	18%	38%	30%	11%	2%	-
29	LI Patrick	1%	15%	40%	35%	9%	1%
30	EYMAN Hans	14%	42%	34%	10%	1%	-
31	EBELL Ivan	10%	34%	38%	16%	2%	-
33	KRAMER Jerome	8%	27%	35%	22%	7%	1%
34	DAVIS Greg	77%	21%	2%	-	-	-
35	MOORE Hunter	45%	46%	9%	-	-	-

Explanation

The heatmap in this table provides a visual representation of the victory probability distribution for each fencer in their respective pools:

Each cell in a fencer's row corresponds to a specific number of victories, starting from the left with no victories and increasing to the right, indicating victories in all bouts.
The shading of each cell represents the probability of that particular victory outcome for the fencer. Darker shades indicate higher probabilities, suggesting that the outcome is more likely based on past performances. On the other hand, lighter shades point towards less probable outcomes.
The boxed number in a cell represents the actual number of victories the fencer achieved in the pool, making it easy to compare predicted probabilities with actual outcomes at a glance.
By examining the gradient from lighter to darker cells, you can get an intuitive sense of where a fencer's victories are more or less expected based on their historical performance.

This heatmap visualization offers an immediate understanding of each fencer's expected performance compared to their actual results.

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