THRUST WINTER RYC/RJCC

Cadet Men's Foil

Sunday, February 9, 2020 at 8:00 AM

Suffern, NY - Suffern, NY, USA

Probability density of pool victories

Birth Year

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Explore the pool victory probability density for each fencer, with their actual victories highlighted in a box. Learn more.

#	Name	Number of victories
#	Name	0	1	2	3	4	5	6
1	COSTELLO Chaissen F.	-	-	5%	28%	48%	19%
2	AHN Jun	-	2%	21%	47%	26%	4%
3	RUSADZE Nickolas	-	-	6%	26%	43%	25%
3	LI Richard	-	-	1%	12%	43%	44%
5	LAURICELLA Douglas	-	1%	5%	18%	34%	31%	11%
6	YEROKHIN Michael N.	-	-	5%	25%	45%	25%
7	MENG Zhaoyi	1%	16%	39%	32%	10%	1%
8	HORSLEY Alexander	-	-	5%	24%	44%	25%
9	KWON Ethan	-	-	1%	7%	25%	42%	26%
10	SHA Yi Peng	-	2%	18%	39%	32%	8%
11	BING Charles	-	-	4%	22%	47%	27%
12	WU Alexander	-	2%	11%	27%	34%	21%	5%
13	GUO Sean	1%	11%	46%	34%	8%	1%
14	ACHILOV Sayid	1%	8%	29%	41%	19%	3%
15	ZELTSER Lawrence M.	-	2%	13%	29%	33%	18%	4%
16	KLEIN Sebastian W.	-	13%	37%	36%	12%	1%
17	CHAN Tyler	-	1%	13%	36%	37%	13%
18	TOLBA Abdelrahman	-	-	5%	24%	49%	22%
19	CATINO Brennen	-	1%	9%	27%	36%	21%	4%
20	LI Yao (Liam)	-	4%	20%	36%	28%	10%	1%
21	LEVIN Michael	-	-	3%	19%	46%	32%
22	BROWN Alexander R.	12%	37%	36%	13%	2%	-
23	ZHAI Jeffrey	1%	11%	34%	39%	13%	1%
24	WANG Gerald Y.	1%	9%	29%	36%	20%	5%	-
25	OROSZLAN Daniel	1%	10%	27%	34%	21%	6%	1%
26	VERSTEELE Sander	-	2%	12%	29%	33%	19%	4%
27	BELLUOMO David C.	3%	23%	43%	26%	5%	-
28	KIM Tei D.	-	-	2%	13%	44%	42%
28	SYOMICHEV Gleb A.	1%	22%	42%	28%	7%	1%
30	ALIMI Yacine A.	-	10%	35%	37%	15%	2%
31	JIANG Owen	-	1%	5%	21%	37%	29%	8%
32	BOUSSY Luciano	18%	62%	19%	2%	-	-
33	CUTLER Andrew	10%	38%	37%	13%	2%	-
34	GUO Jacob	4%	22%	36%	26%	10%	2%	-
35	EIG Ethan A.	16%	40%	32%	10%	1%	-
36	SONG Bryan	6%	46%	37%	11%	1%	-
37	ZHONG Guoren	20%	43%	29%	7%	1%	-
38	SCHALES Peyton	50%	39%	10%	1%	-	-
39	KUO Oliver K.	12%	40%	34%	12%	2%	-	-
40	RADTKE Jakob	50%	39%	10%	1%	-	-	-
41	DAS Nikhil	67%	30%	3%	-	-	-
42	WU Benjamin	80%	18%	1%	-	-	-
43	CAPUTO john	86%	13%	1%	-	-	-
44	WILHELM Drake	51%	37%	10%	1%	-	-	-

Explanation

The heatmap in this table provides a visual representation of the victory probability distribution for each fencer in their respective pools:

Each cell in a fencer's row corresponds to a specific number of victories, starting from the left with no victories and increasing to the right, indicating victories in all bouts.
The shading of each cell represents the probability of that particular victory outcome for the fencer. Darker shades indicate higher probabilities, suggesting that the outcome is more likely based on past performances. On the other hand, lighter shades point towards less probable outcomes.
The boxed number in a cell represents the actual number of victories the fencer achieved in the pool, making it easy to compare predicted probabilities with actual outcomes at a glance.
By examining the gradient from lighter to darker cells, you can get an intuitive sense of where a fencer's victories are more or less expected based on their historical performance.

This heatmap visualization offers an immediate understanding of each fencer's expected performance compared to their actual results.

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