Remenyik ROC and RJCC

Junior Men's Foil

Sunday, October 10, 2021 at 2:30 PM

Evanston, IL - Evanston, IL, USA

Probability density of pool victories

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Explore the pool victory probability density for each fencer, with their actual victories highlighted in a box. Learn more.

#	Name	Number of victories
#	Name	0	1	2	3	4	5	6
1	BALL James T.	-	-	2%	17%	54%	28%
2	DESERANNO Jeidus	-	-	-	-	1%	28%	71%
3	YI Stephen K.	-	-	-	1%	10%	38%	51%
3	LU Yikai	-	-	-	1%	13%	64%	22%
5	JI Aidan Y.	-	9%	31%	39%	19%	2%
6	FREEDMAN Samuel E.	-	-	2%	13%	42%	43%
7	SONG Aiden S.	-	-	-	4%	27%	69%
8	CHENG Nathan	-	1%	11%	35%	40%	12%
9	YANG Luao	-	-	-	8%	43%	49%
10	GOGOI Vir K.	-	7%	30%	42%	19%	2%
11	CULLIVAN Justice	-	-	-	2%	14%	41%	44%
12	FORTUNE Alexander J.	-	1%	8%	28%	39%	22%	3%
13	LOVIN Vlad	-	1%	12%	34%	36%	15%	2%
14	WANG Andrew	-	-	6%	25%	41%	24%	4%
15	PORRAS Cristian	-	1%	6%	23%	38%	27%	5%
16	QUINONES Diego A.	-	1%	18%	42%	32%	6%
17	NUNNINK Phillip W.	-	-	3%	18%	42%	37%
18	TAN Christien	-	-	5%	24%	41%	25%	4%
19	ANDERSON Jacob	1%	11%	39%	35%	12%	2%	-
20	WEINSTEIN Ethan	-	1%	12%	33%	36%	16%	2%
21	LIM Lance Jeremiah	19%	43%	30%	8%	1%	-	-
22	GLOVER James	-	3%	20%	42%	30%	4%
23	PALMA Matthew Dominic	-	3%	18%	43%	30%	6%
24	UPTON Craig	1%	9%	34%	39%	15%	1%
25	FLYNN Ian	-	4%	29%	50%	16%	1%
26	SANTOS Carlos R.	-	6%	25%	44%	24%	2%	-
27	LIU Jacob B.	1%	14%	50%	30%	4%	-
28	POLONSKI Anthony	7%	30%	42%	19%	3%	-
29	REEVES Liam	-	6%	28%	41%	22%	3%
30	SINHA Verdhaan	-	3%	18%	42%	33%	3%	-
31	BIESIADA Jan	56%	39%	5%	-	-	-
32	EUH Jason	24%	46%	25%	5%	-	-
33	CHOI Simon	52%	42%	6%	-	-	-
34	TALASILA Arush	53%	38%	8%	1%	-	-
35	DEDENBACH Joseph	-	15%	44%	31%	9%	1%	-
36	BARCA Bryant	9%	46%	35%	9%	1%	-	-
37	ZHAO Bowen	23%	43%	27%	7%	1%	-	-
38	MARTIN William	75%	24%	2%	-	-	-	-
39	ELSEN William	59%	35%	6%	-	-	-	-
40	AMMON Blue	9%	33%	40%	16%	2%	-	-
40	CHEZ Nolan	13%	50%	29%	7%	1%	-	-
42	FECHTMEYER Theodore	28%	54%	17%	2%	-	-
42	RAJPAL Alastair	16%	48%	29%	7%	1%	-
44	IRISH Thomas	26%	44%	24%	5%	-	-
44	FENSTERHEIM Noah	13%	39%	34%	12%	2%	-

Explanation

The heatmap in this table provides a visual representation of the victory probability distribution for each fencer in their respective pools:

Each cell in a fencer's row corresponds to a specific number of victories, starting from the left with no victories and increasing to the right, indicating victories in all bouts.
The shading of each cell represents the probability of that particular victory outcome for the fencer. Darker shades indicate higher probabilities, suggesting that the outcome is more likely based on past performances. On the other hand, lighter shades point towards less probable outcomes.
The boxed number in a cell represents the actual number of victories the fencer achieved in the pool, making it easy to compare predicted probabilities with actual outcomes at a glance.
By examining the gradient from lighter to darker cells, you can get an intuitive sense of where a fencer's victories are more or less expected based on their historical performance.

This heatmap visualization offers an immediate understanding of each fencer's expected performance compared to their actual results.

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