GRAFA RJCC/RYC - Third Coast Fencing Cup - Reg Opens 3/3

Y-14 Men's Foil

Saturday, April 24, 2021 at 8:00 AM

Grand Rapids, MI - Grand Rapids, MI, USA

Probability density of pool victories

Birth Year

Reset

Explore the pool victory probability density for each fencer, with their actual victories highlighted in a box. Learn more.

#	Name	Number of victories
#	Name	0	1	2	3	4	5	6
1	DESERANNO Jeidus	-	-	-	-	16%	84%
2	PALMA Matthew Dominic	-	-	1%	10%	46%	43%
3	TAN Christien	-	1%	7%	23%	36%	26%	7%
3	WONG Antonio	-	3%	17%	38%	34%	9%
5	CULLIVAN Justice	-	-	-	-	6%	33%	61%
6	ORONOWICZ Jakub	-	-	2%	14%	38%	38%	8%
7	JI Aidan Y.	-	-	2%	18%	50%	30%
8	DORE Davis	-	1%	7%	23%	35%	26%	7%
9	REEVES Liam	-	-	3%	17%	43%	37%
10	GOGOI Vir K.	1%	11%	31%	36%	18%	2%
11	SANTOS Carlos R.	-	2%	18%	46%	35%	-
12	PAI Lakshan K.	-	-	2%	13%	39%	46%
13	KUSHNIR Aden N.	1%	10%	27%	34%	21%	6%	1%
14	SHEVCHENKO Kostiantyn	-	1%	6%	24%	43%	24%	3%
15	PALMA Nathan Anthony	3%	18%	37%	30%	10%	1%
16	HAN Derek	1%	11%	30%	36%	19%	3%
17	GOHSMAN Maxwell	23%	40%	27%	9%	1%	-
18	KELLY Tommy	-	5%	27%	50%	17%	2%
19	FINDLAY Zachary	1%	8%	35%	42%	15%	-
20	LAI Twayne	7%	29%	36%	21%	6%	1%	-
21	LIM Lance Jeremiah	16%	41%	32%	9%	1%	-	-
22	SPINA Joseph B.	1%	7%	25%	39%	24%	5%
23	IRVINE Brody	23%	49%	24%	4%	-	-
24	EDWARDS Maxon	2%	26%	43%	24%	4%	-
25	NYKAMP Caleb	4%	17%	32%	29%	14%	4%	-
26	LIU Ethan	-	1%	6%	19%	34%	30%	11%
27	REAUME Nate	10%	34%	38%	15%	3%	-	-
28	ALLEN Henry G.	1%	11%	31%	37%	17%	2%
29	DUNLAP Ian	64%	31%	5%	-	-	-
30	HEYBOER Jason	33%	42%	20%	5%	-	-
31	MCISAAC Finn	36%	45%	17%	2%	-	-
32	MARK IAN	2%	27%	54%	15%	1%	-
33	MANGIONE Alexander	3%	22%	40%	27%	7%	1%	-
34	BAYLDON william	10%	45%	34%	9%	1%	-
35	VANDER VELDE Roman	3%	24%	49%	21%	3%	-
35	DEVRIES William	11%	49%	33%	7%	1%	-
37	MCDOWELL Will	3%	26%	43%	24%	4%	-	-
38	KUE Temujin	11%	36%	35%	15%	3%	-	-

Explanation

The heatmap in this table provides a visual representation of the victory probability distribution for each fencer in their respective pools:

Each cell in a fencer's row corresponds to a specific number of victories, starting from the left with no victories and increasing to the right, indicating victories in all bouts.
The shading of each cell represents the probability of that particular victory outcome for the fencer. Darker shades indicate higher probabilities, suggesting that the outcome is more likely based on past performances. On the other hand, lighter shades point towards less probable outcomes.
The boxed number in a cell represents the actual number of victories the fencer achieved in the pool, making it easy to compare predicted probabilities with actual outcomes at a glance.
By examining the gradient from lighter to darker cells, you can get an intuitive sense of where a fencer's victories are more or less expected based on their historical performance.

This heatmap visualization offers an immediate understanding of each fencer's expected performance compared to their actual results.

Want to keep up with all things fencingtracker? Join our Discord community here.