The Southern RYC/RJCC

Junior Men's Foil

Sunday, December 19, 2021 at 8:00 AM

Myrtle Beach Convention Center, Hall A - Myrtle Beach, SC, USA

Probability density of pool victories

Birth Year

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Explore the pool victory probability density for each fencer, with their actual victories highlighted in a box. Learn more.

#	Name	Number of victories
#	Name	0	1	2	3	4	5	6
1	MORAIS Paulo	-	-	-	-	2%	24%	74%
2	MITCHELL Philip D.	-	-	-	-	5%	30%	65%
3	WONG Garrick G.	-	1%	9%	33%	42%	15%
3	SICHITIU Alexander	-	1%	8%	27%	41%	23%
5	LI Matthew	-	3%	21%	43%	28%	5%
6	MOHAMED Amir	-	-	4%	21%	43%	28%	3%
7	LEE Jacob	-	2%	13%	32%	35%	16%	2%
8	YIM Alex	3%	17%	35%	32%	12%	2%
9	LEE Lukas	-	1%	5%	22%	39%	28%	6%
10	KEE Andrew L.	-	3%	15%	34%	36%	13%
11	WILLIAMS Connor J.	-	1%	7%	24%	37%	26%	7%
12	EMENHEISER Conrad	-	5%	23%	37%	27%	8%	-
13	WANG Winston	-	8%	28%	37%	22%	5%	-
14	GRISWOLD Abel B.	-	-	2%	16%	44%	39%
15	ELWOOD Sebastian F.	-	2%	12%	31%	37%	18%	2%
16	BERNABE Rafael	-	11%	35%	34%	15%	3%	-
17	LIN Michael	-	-	4%	17%	35%	33%	12%
18	WECHSLER Jacob	-	-	3%	15%	37%	35%	10%
19	JITTAN daniel	-	-	3%	20%	43%	30%	3%
20	SONG Austin	11%	34%	35%	16%	3%	-
21	LOVE Aaron	-	1%	9%	28%	36%	21%	5%
22	MOHAMED Murad	-	-	4%	19%	36%	31%	10%
23	SHEPHERD Conner M.	-	-	-	4%	20%	43%	33%
24	KLYCZEK Andrew	2%	17%	42%	30%	8%	1%
25	DRESSEL Jet	27%	42%	24%	6%	1%	-
26	ORLOV Dmitriy	-	6%	24%	41%	24%	5%	-
27	PAN Henry	1%	8%	27%	37%	22%	5%	-
28	ZOU Yuming	5%	24%	39%	25%	7%	1%	-
29	WANG Brayden	9%	33%	39%	17%	3%	-	-
30	HUANG Eythan	4%	30%	39%	21%	5%	-	-
31	BATRA Dev	14%	38%	33%	12%	2%	-	-
32	KANDAGADLA Rishi	30%	48%	19%	3%	-	-
33	KIM Chaemin	33%	47%	18%	3%	-	-
34	FELIX Ian	3%	36%	40%	17%	4%	-	-
35	MOORHOUSE Emmett	38%	43%	16%	3%	-	-	-
36	SAGE Michael P.	1%	12%	31%	36%	17%	3%
37	FU Steven	26%	43%	24%	6%	1%	-	-
38	GUEVARRA Gabriel (Gabe) W.	9%	37%	39%	13%	2%	-	-
39	THIYAGARAJAA Ari	82%	17%	1%	-	-	-	-
40	YUAN Austin	70%	26%	3%	-	-	-	-

Explanation

The heatmap in this table provides a visual representation of the victory probability distribution for each fencer in their respective pools:

Each cell in a fencer's row corresponds to a specific number of victories, starting from the left with no victories and increasing to the right, indicating victories in all bouts.
The shading of each cell represents the probability of that particular victory outcome for the fencer. Darker shades indicate higher probabilities, suggesting that the outcome is more likely based on past performances. On the other hand, lighter shades point towards less probable outcomes.
The boxed number in a cell represents the actual number of victories the fencer achieved in the pool, making it easy to compare predicted probabilities with actual outcomes at a glance.
By examining the gradient from lighter to darker cells, you can get an intuitive sense of where a fencer's victories are more or less expected based on their historical performance.

This heatmap visualization offers an immediate understanding of each fencer's expected performance compared to their actual results.

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